Will COVID-19 hinder or aid the transition to sustainable urban mobility? Spotlight on Portugal's largest urban agglomeration.

This study discusses the possible effects of two major COVID-19 disruptions - that is, the widespread adoption of working from home and the 'bio-security' fear affecting public transport - on travel patterns in Lisbon urban agglomeration. Drawing on evidence from the literature on the effects of teleworking on travel demand and the determinants of public transport, together with the analysis of travel data before and during the pandemic, the study concludes that the pandemic may hinder, more than aid, the transition to a sustainable mobility paradigm in Lisbon and its metropolitan area. The analysis of monthly travel demand shows that car use has recovered at a faster rate than public transport use, reaching pre-pandemic levels in some of the main arterial roads serving Lisbon. There appears to be a substitution of public transport trips by both driving and active micromobility. The main losers so far are public transport operators: the pandemic increased operating deficits and the need for additional public subsidies, putting at risk the future financial sustainability of public transport. Without serious commitment by local and national governments, the pandemic is likely to be another missed opportunity to transition to a better, more sustainable, urban mobility system.