The effect of COVID-19 on long-distance transport services in France.

This paper explores the effect of COVID-19 on long-distance transport services in France. These services have been deeply impacted by the different lockdowns imposed. However, until now, few papers have considered this topic. The research examines the long-distance transportation market before COVID-19 to understand how it adapted to the COVID-19 countermeasures. The empirical research is based on a large pool of data pertaining to four transport routes in France from September 2019 to November 2021 for four modes (coach, carpooling, train, and air). Prices and frequencies are the main variables. The study's results must be considered carefully because the pandemic is ongoing. The first finding is the severe crisis in terms of supply during the first lockdown in March 2020. Throughout the rest of 2020 and 2021, services increased slowly, with rail and carpooling recovering to almost their 2019 levels, though this is not yet the case for coach and air services. The second finding is that the dominant mode, rail, enjoys the greatest market concentration, especially in comparison to air, which is still experiencing difficulties because of the reduction in the business market. The last finding highlights the persistence of conventional services during the different lockdowns and the high variability of low-cost services, which disappeared during the crisis. However, mainly thanks to state financial support, no operator went bankrupt or left the market. Finally, low-cost services were recovering faster in autumn 2021 than conventional services, thereby increasing their market share. The crisis in the business market may explain the difficulty conventional services face whereas low-cost services are better adapted to the leisure market.