ArticleMedical journal of the Islamic Republic of Iran2024
Analysis of Birth Growth: Using a Mixture Cure Frailty Model.
Article in Medical journal of the Islamic Republic of Iran, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Background: The birth rate is important in population growth. Concerns are growing over declining birth rates in Iran, as a developing country in the past decade. The present study aimed to examine population growth in Hamadan and the factors influencing the birth rate. Methods: This retrospective cohort study utilized data from 633 families with their first child in 2012 in Hamadan-information updated in 2022. The Kaplan-Meier plateau indicates a curing pattern; therefore, a mixture cure frailty model was employed to estimate the probability and hazard rate of having different numbers of children. This model comprises 2 components: the first estimates the probability of birth (or nonbirth, indicating cure), while the second component calculates the birth hazard rate for having different number of children. Results: Mothers with high school diploma (odds ratio [OR], 0.049; Conclusion: The study found that the mixture cure frailty model was effective in analyzing birth rates, with couples showing a decreased inclination to have more than 2 children. One contributing factor to this trend is the mothers' education and employment.
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