ArticleGut and liver2025
Development and Validation of Predictive Models for Gastric Neoplasm Risk Stratification in Screening Esophagogastroduodenoscopy.
Article in Gut and liver, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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5 authors.
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Abstract
Background/Aims: Stratifying patients for gastric neoplasm risk before screening esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) is challenging. The aim of this study was to develop a prediction model for assessing gastric neoplasm risk in a screening setting. Methods: This retrospective cross-sectional study included 21,586 EGD patients from Seoul St. Mary's Hospital, Korea (2009 to 2019). Logistic regression analyses identified risk factors, and score-based prediction models were developed on the basis of these risk factors. These models were evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC) and the Hosmer?Lemeshow goodness of fit test. Internal validation was performed using bootstrapping (1,000 resamples) and a validation cohort. Results: The study included 10,414 patients in the derivation cohort and 11,172 in the validation cohort. Gastric dysplasia and cancer were identified in 49 (0.47%) and 35 (0.34%) patients, respectively. Four models were developed, with Model 4 including age, sex, pepsinogen I/II ratio, anti- Conclusions: The predictive models achieved an AUC of approximately 0.8. Further improvements with additional stratification factors are needed for better diagnostic performance in prescreening.
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