Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40468457›Full record

ArticleJournal of health, population, and nutrition2025

Prediction of depression risk in middle-aged and elderly Cardiovascular-Kidney-Metabolic syndrome patients by social and environmental determinants of health: an interpretable machine learning approach using longitudinal data from China.

Xinyi Xu, Xinru Li, Xiyan Li, Benli Xue, Xiao Zheng, Shujuan Xiao, Lingli Yang, Xinyi Zhang, Chengyu Chen, Ting Zheng and 9 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of health, population, and nutrition, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.

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6citing papers in PubMed
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1 · What the graph read from it

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3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

6 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

19 authors.

Xinyi Xu *School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China.
Xinru Li *School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China.
Xiyan Li *Key Laboratory of Philosophy and Social Sciences of Colleges and Universities in Guangdong Province for Collaborative Innovation of Health Management Policy and Precision Health Service, Guangzhou, China.
Benli XueSchool of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China.
Xiao ZhengSchool of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China.
Shujuan XiaoSchool of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China.
Lingli YangKey Laboratory of Philosophy and Social Sciences of Colleges and Universities in Guangdong Province for Collaborative Innovation of Health Management Policy and Precision Health Service, Guangzhou, China.
Xinyi ZhangSchool of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China.
Chengyu ChenKey Laboratory of Philosophy and Social Sciences of Colleges and Universities in Guangdong Province for Collaborative Innovation of Health Management Policy and Precision Health Service, Guangzhou, China.
Ting ZhengSchool of Health Management, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China.
Yuyang LiSchool of Health Management, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China.
Yanan WangSchool of Health Management, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China.
Jianan HanSchool of Health Management, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China.
Haoran WuKey Laboratory of Philosophy and Social Sciences of Colleges and Universities in Guangdong Province for Collaborative Innovation of Health Management Policy and Precision Health Service, Guangzhou, China.
Mengjie ZhangSchool of Health Management, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China.
Yanming LiaoSchool of Health Management, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China.
Siyi BaiSchool of Health Management, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China.
Nan ZengSchool of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China. znshuyu@126.com.
Chichen ZhangSchool of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China. zhangchichen@sina.com.

Funding

the Guangdong Philosophy and Social Science Foundation GD23CGL06the National Natural Science Foundation of China 72274091
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundCardiovascular-Kidney-Metabolic (CKM) syndrome is a systemic disease characterized by pathophysiological interactions between the cardiovascular system, chronic kidney disease, and metabolic risk factors. In China, the prevalence of CKM in middle-aged and elderly patients is relatively high. The current research lacks an exploration into the impact of social and environmental determinants of health on depression in CKM patients.

objectiveThis study aims to construct a depression risk prediction model for middle-aged and elderly CKM patients by social and environmental determinants of health.

methodsIn this study, 3220 participants were included and collected from three waves of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS). A depression risk prediction model for middle-aged and elderly CKM patients was constructed by using 10 machine learning models. Additionally, the mediating effect of NO

resultsAn interpretable machine learning model framework was constructed to predict depression risk in middle-aged and elderly CKM patients using the longitudinal cohort data from CHARLS. The RF model demonstrated strong performance in predicting the training set, and the Xgboost model exhibited excellent generalization ability. The presence of arthritis showed a significant independent effect on depression outcomes, with an average direct effect of - 8.5559. The total effect of arthritis on depression outcomes was - 9.5162. The mediating effect of NO

conclusionsA depression risk prediction model for middle-aged and elderly CKM patients was developed based on the CHARLS longitudinal data from 2011 to 2015. The SHAP framework was used to provide machine learning model explanations. Intervention strategies that address social and environmental determinants of health are needed. Potential strategies include enhancing urban greening to reduce NO

Indexed as

Cardiovascular DiseasesDepressionMachine LearningMetabolic SyndromeRenal Insufficiency, ChronicSocial Determinants of HealthAgedChinaFemaleHumansLongitudinal StudiesMaleMiddle AgedRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsCardiovascular-Kidney-Metabolic syndromeHealth managementMediation analysisRandom forest

Identifiers

PMID40468457
PMCPMC12139367

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.