Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40462096›Full record

ArticleBMC public health2025

Global, regional, and national burden of mortality and DALYs attributable to high body mass index from 1990 to 2021 with projections to 2036.

Feng Xie, Fei Xiong, Baoqin Yang, Zeng Yan, Yong Shen, Hui Qin, Li Chen, Tiantian Chen, Jigui Chen, Shaihong Zhu and 2 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC public health, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
21citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

21 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  8. Review
  9. OBEClust: joining forces to prevent obesity.Nature reviews. Endocrinology · 2026
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  10. Modern Management of CKM Syndrome: Use of GLP-1 Receptor Agonists in a Multidisciplinary Setting-Expert Group Recommendations from Kuwait.Diabetes therapy : research, treatment and education of diabetes and related disorders · 2026
    Review
  11. Six-year Follow-Up of Nonpharmacological and Nonsurgical Obesity Treatments.Diabetes, metabolic syndrome and obesity : targets and therapy · 2026
    Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors.

Feng Xie *Department of Bariatric and Metabolic Surgery, The Third Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha, 410013, China.
Fei Xiong *Bariatric and Metabolic Medicine Center, The Eighth Hospital of Wuhan, Wuhan, 430000, China.
Baoqin YangBariatric and Metabolic Medicine Center, The Eighth Hospital of Wuhan, Wuhan, 430000, China.
Zeng YanBariatric and Metabolic Medicine Center, The Eighth Hospital of Wuhan, Wuhan, 430000, China.
Yong ShenBariatric and Metabolic Medicine Center, The Eighth Hospital of Wuhan, Wuhan, 430000, China.
Hui QinBariatric and Metabolic Medicine Center, The Eighth Hospital of Wuhan, Wuhan, 430000, China.
Li ChenBariatric and Metabolic Medicine Center, The Eighth Hospital of Wuhan, Wuhan, 430000, China.
Tiantian ChenBariatric and Metabolic Medicine Center, The Eighth Hospital of Wuhan, Wuhan, 430000, China.
Jigui ChenBariatric and Metabolic Medicine Center, The Eighth Hospital of Wuhan, Wuhan, 430000, China.
Shaihong ZhuDepartment of Bariatric and Metabolic Surgery, The Third Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha, 410013, China.
Yongbiao Xu *The Eighth Hospital of Wuhan, Wuhan, 430000, China. xuyongbiao2020@163.com.
Xulong Sun *Department of Bariatric and Metabolic Surgery, The Third Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha, 410013, China. xulongsun.csu@foxmail.com.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe prevalence of high body mass index (BMI) has been increasing over the past three decades, resulting in significant public health challenges. This study aims to comprehensively analyze global, regional, and national trends in death and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to high BMI from 1990 to 2021.

methodsWe utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease study to estimate deaths and DALYs linked to high BMI across 204 countries and territories. Temporal trends were analyzed by sex, age group, region, and Socio-demographic index (SDI). Decomposition analyses were conducted to assess the impact of demographic factors on BMI-related disease burden. All estimates are presented with 95% uncertainty interval (UI) to quantify statistical uncertainty. The autoregressive integrated moving average model was employed to project future trends to 2036.

resultsGlobally, BMI-related deaths increased from 1.46 million (95% UI 0.72, 2.29) in 1990 to 3.71 million (95% UI 1.85, 5.66) in 2021. DALYs rose from 48 million (95% UI 21.2, 77.3) to 128.5 million (95% UI 56, 202.4) over the same period. Diabetes and kidney diseases have now overtaken cardiovascular diseases as the leading cause of DALYs, despite cardiovascular diseases remain the major contributor to BMI-related deaths. They accounted for 82.01% of deaths and 73.91% of DALYs. Among the four regions with the highest SDI, three showed a decline in BMI-related deaths and DALYs, except for high-income North America. In contrast, low-SDI regions continued to face escalating health burdens. Population aging was a primary driver of the increasing burden, which made up 49.43% of the increase in deaths and 47.03% in DALYs.

conclusionsThe increasing prevalence of high BMI has resulted in significant health burdens over the past three decades, with cardiovascular diseases, diabetes and kidney diseases being primary contributors. Low- and middle-income regions bear a larger share of the burden, while population aging exacerbates these challenges. Developing equitable and effective public health strategies is essential for addressing the growing obesity epidemic.

Indexed as

Body Mass IndexDisability-Adjusted Life YearsGlobal HealthMortalityObesityAdolescentAdultAgedChildFemaleForecastingGlobal Burden of DiseaseHumansMaleMiddle AgedQuality-Adjusted Life YearsDisability-adjusted life yearsGlobal burden of diseaseHealth inequalityHigh body mass indexTrends

Identifiers

PMID40462096
PMCPMC12131607

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.