Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40461054›Full record

ArticleBMJ global health2025

Substandard and falsified antibiotics are associated with antimicrobial resistance: a retrospective country-level analysis.

Elisa M Maffioli, Yutong Lu, Chimezie Anyakora

Abstract read
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Article in BMJ global health, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
4citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

4 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Elisa M MaffioliHealth Management and Policy, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA elisamaf@umich.edu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3303-7945
Yutong LuHarvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0007-8723-5599
Chimezie AnyakoraPan-Atlantic University, Victoria Island, Nigeria.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveSubstandard and falsified (SF) medicines pose a significant public health concern due to their elusive nature and potentially dire consequences, including the exacerbation of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). This study aims to quantitatively assess the relationship between the prevalence of SF antibiotics and AMR.

methodsWe combine the Infectious Diseases Data Observatory database (1962-2019), with Global Bacterial Antimicrobial Resistance Burden Estimates (2019) to investigate whether the prevalence of SF antibiotics is positively associated with AMR. Using a quasi-binomial regression, we analyse 257 unique observations across 63 countries and 7 antibiotic classes between 1992 and 2019. We adjust the model for socioeconomic, environmental, health-related, governance and livestock production factors.

findingsWe find that the prevalence of SF antibiotics is positively associated with AMR, after controlling for Gross Domestic Product per capita, population density, particulate matter 2.5, cardiovascular death rate, human antibiotic consumption, regulatory quality, livestock production. The prevalence of SF antibiotics is also positively associated with deaths per 100 000 people attributable to or associated with AMR. This is robust to adding more covariates and country fixed effects as well as dropping countries with a limited number of observations.

conclusionAMR ranks among the top global health threats, presenting a multifaceted challenge affecting humans, animals and environment. This study sheds light on the possible relationship between SF antibiotics and AMR. While the prevalence of SF antibiotics appears to be associated with AMR, further research and more representative data are needed to determine the extent to which this association could be explained by a direct causal relationship.

Indexed as

Anti-Bacterial AgentsCounterfeit DrugsDrug Resistance, BacterialGlobal HealthHumansRetrospective StudiesAnti-Bacterial AgentsCounterfeit DrugsGlobal HealthHealth systemsPublic Health

Identifiers

PMID40461054
PMCPMC12142163

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.