Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40457812›Full record

ArticleRheumatology (Oxford, England)2025

Predicting trajectories of lung function decline in systemic sclerosis-related interstitial lung disease.

Boyang Zheng, Mandana Nikpour, Wendy Stevens, Susanna Proudman, Kathleen Morrisroe, Mianbo Wang, Ada Man, Murray Baron, Australian Scleroderma Interest Group and the Canadian Scleroderma Research Group

Abstract readMulticenter Study
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Rheumatology (Oxford, England), 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Boyang ZhengDivision of Rheumatology, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada.
Mandana NikpourSydney Musculoskeletal Health Flagship Centre and Sydney School of Public Health, The University of Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Wendy StevensDepartment of Rheumatology, St Vincent's Hospital Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
Susanna ProudmanRheumatology, Royal Adelaide Hospital, Adelaide, SA, Australia.
Kathleen MorrisroeDepartment of Rheumatology, St Vincent's Hospital Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
Mianbo WangLady Davis Institute for Medical Research, Montreal, QC, Canada.
Ada ManRheumatology, Faculty of Medicine, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada.
Murray BaronRheumatology, Jewish General Hospital, Montreal, QC, Canada.
Australian Scleroderma Interest Group and the Canadian Scleroderma Research Group

Funding

Canadian Scleroderma Research GroupChapters of Ontario, Saskatchewan and Québec; Cure Scleroderma FoundationCIHRINOVA Diagnostics Inc.National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia Investigator GTN1197169NHMRC GNT1176538Scleroderma Society of Canada
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveSSc-related interstitial lung disease (SSc-ILD) is a major cause of morbidity. We aimed to identify patients following similar trajectories of forced vital capacity (FVC) decline, and examine their association with mortality and risk factors for FVC decline.

methodsThis is a multicentre retrospective study of 444 SSc patients with ILD and ≤7-year disease duration. Patients were grouped based on similar FVC decline trajectories using semi-parametric modelling with latent class analysis. Survival was compared between the worst FVC trajectory group and the others. Logistic regression models with backwards selection were applied to identify predictors of FVC trajectory using baseline disease features.

resultsFour FVC trajectory groups were identified. The most progressive trajectory declined by -2.18% per year and the other three trajectory groups were stable or progressed slowly. The most progressive group had a higher mortality rate than those with a stable/slow FVC trajectory (hazard ratio 2.95, 95% CI 1.74, 4.98). Baseline FVC (P < 0.001) and CRP elevation (P = 0.039) were associated the progressive trajectory. Baseline FVC ≤72% predicted the progressive trajectory with a sensitivity of 0.88 and specificity of 0.91. A lower baseline FVC was in turn associated with older age, Caucasian race, longer disease duration, anti-topoisomerase I presence and elevated CRP on exploratory analyses.

conclusionDistinct FVC trajectories are associated with different survival outcomes and the most important predictor of a progressive FVC trajectory was existing ILD severity. More work is needed to assess the utility of imaging or paraclinical findings that can improve prediction of distinct FVC trajectories.

Indexed as

LungLung Diseases, InterstitialScleroderma, SystemicAdultAgedDisease ProgressionFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedRetrospective StudiesRisk FactorsVital Capacityforced vital capacityinterstitial lung diseasemortalitysclerodermasystemic sclerosis

Identifiers

PMID40457812
PMCPMC12596066

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.