Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40457567›Full record

ReviewCPT: pharmacometrics & systems pharmacology2025

Viral Dynamic Models During COVID-19: Are We Ready for the Next Pandemic?

Aurelien Marc, Joshua T Schiffer, France Mentré, Alan S Perelson, Jérémie Guedj

Abstract readReview
In one paragraph

Review in CPT: pharmacometrics & systems pharmacology, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Aurelien MarcT-6, Theoretical Biology and Biophysics, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6936-5388
Joshua T SchifferVaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington, USA.
France MentréUniversité Paris Cité, IAME, INSERM, Paris, France.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7045-1275
Alan S PerelsonT-6, Theoretical Biology and Biophysics, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA.
Jérémie GuedjUniversité Paris Cité, IAME, INSERM, Paris, France.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5534-5482

Funding

Modeling Viral and T Lymphocyte DynamicsR01OD011095 · OD · TRIAD NATIONAL SECURITY, LLC · PI PERELSON, ALAN S · 2012 to 2024
$5.0M
Immune System Modeling/HIVR01AI028433 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CALIF-LOS ALAMOS NAT LAB · PI PERELSON, ALAN S · 1990 to 2021
$3.7M
Immune System Modeling/HIVR37AI028433 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CALIF-LOS ALAMOS NAT LAB · PI PERELSON, ALAN S · 2002 to 2011
$2.4M
NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI028433NIAID NIH HHS R37 AI028433NIH HHS R01 OD011095
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Mathematical models have been used for about 30 years to improve our understanding of virus-host interaction, in particular during chronic infections. During the COVID-19 pandemic, these models have been used to provide insights into the natural history of acute SARS-CoV-2 infection, optimize antiviral treatment strategies, understand factors associated with transmission, and optimize surveillance systems. The impact of modeling has been accelerated by the availability of unprecedented multidimensional immune data from animal and human systems, which enhanced partnerships between experimentalists and theorists and led to exciting new modeling and statistical developments. In this mini review, we examine the lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic and discuss the main insights provided by mathematical models of viral dynamics at the different stages of the outbreak. Although we focus on respiratory infection, we also consider the new areas for development in anticipation of future acute infections from new or reemerging pathogens.

Indexed as

COVID-19Models, BiologicalModels, TheoreticalSARS-CoV-2AnimalsAntiviral AgentsHumansPandemicsAntiviral Agents

Identifiers

PMID40457567
PMCPMC12358307

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.