Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40455571›Full record

SynthesisHealth technology assessment (Winchester, England)2025

Clinical and cost-effectiveness of detailed anomaly ultrasound screening in the first trimester: a mixed-methods study.

Jehan N Karim, Helen Campbell, Pranav Pandya, Edward C F Wilson, Zarko Alfirevic, Trish Chudleigh, Elizabeth Duff, Jane Fisher, Hilary Goodman, Lisa Hinton and 12 more

Abstract readSystematic ReviewMeta-Analysis
In one paragraph

Synthesis in Health technology assessment (Winchester, England), 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
4citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

4 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Review
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

22 authors.

Jehan N KarimUniversity of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-1199-6283
Helen CampbellUniversity of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-2070-7794
Pranav PandyaUniversity College London Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK.
Edward C F WilsonExeter University, Exeter, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-8369-1577
Zarko AlfirevicLiverpool Women's NHS Foundation Trust, Liverpool, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-9276-518X
Trish ChudleighCambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Cambridge, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-7078-5646
Elizabeth DuffNational Childbirth Trust, Cambridge, UK.ORCID 0009-0003-9451-7544
Jane FisherAntenatal Results and Choices, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-1318-0074
Hilary GoodmanHampshire Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Hampshire, UK.
Lisa HintonUniversity of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-6082-3151
Christos IoannouOxford University Hospitals NHS Trust, Oxford, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-3147-6613
Edmund JuszczakUniversity of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-5500-2247
Louise LinsellUniversity of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-3205-6511
Heather L LongworthLiverpool Women's NHS Foundation Trust, Liverpool, UK.
Kypros H NicolaidesKing's College Hospital, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-1266-0711
Anne RhodesTiny Tickers, London, UK.
Gordon SmithUniversity of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-2124-0997
Basky ThilaganathanSt George's University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-5531-4301
Jim ThorntonUniversity of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-9764-6876
Gillian YazUniversity of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Oliver Rivero-AriasUniversity of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-2233-6544
Aris T PapageorghiouUniversity of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-8143-2232

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: In the United Kingdom, pregnant women are offered two scans: at 11-14 and 18-20 weeks' gestation. Current guidance supports fetal anatomical screening at the second scan, but evidence suggests earlier detection is possible. Objectives: To determine clinical and cost-effectiveness of a detailed two-dimensional ultrasound scan in the first trimester for detection of fetal anomalies, in addition to usual practice. Design: Systematic review and meta-analysis. Nationwide survey. Analysis of National Congenital Anomaly Disease Registry data. Consensus procedure. Prospective survey of parental opinions. Probabilistic decision-analytic model for cost-effectiveness. Value-of-information analysis. Setting: United Kingdom National Health Service. Participants: Pregnant women and partners. Interventions: Detailed anomaly ultrasound at 11-14 weeks' gestation, in addition to usual practice. Main outcome measures: Diagnostic accuracy, protocol development, health economic modelling and value-of-information analysis. Data sources: MEDLINE (OvidSP), EMBASE (OvidSP), Science Citation Index and Conference Proceedings Citation Index-Science (Web of Science Core Collection); National Congenital Anomaly Disease Registry; European Congenital Anomalies Registry; Surveys of National Health Service Trusts; screening sonographers, midwives and doctors; and parents; National Schedule of National Health Service Costs (2019-20). Review methods: Systematic review and meta-analysis for diagnostic accuracy. Results: First-trimester ultrasound detects 93.3% (95% confidence interval 90.4% to 95.7%) of a pre-selected group of eight major anomalies with specificity of 99.99% (95% confidence interval 99.98% to 99.99%) and positive predictive value of 96.5% (95% confidence interval 93.3 to 98.8, 416,877 fetuses, 40 studies). For major cardiac anomalies, the respective data are 55.8% (95% confidence interval 45.9% to 65.5%), 99.98% (95% confidence interval 99.97% to 99.99%) and 94.85% (95% confidence interval 91.63% to 97.32%, 306,872 fetuses, 45 studies). Of NHS trusts surveyed, 77% currently perform first-trimester anatomy assessment, with evidence of inequity of care; earlier screening resulted in more diagnoses before 16 weeks' gestation. A consensus procedure ( Limitations: Study heterogeneity; the lack of a universal reference standard; simplifying assumptions relating to economic model structure; and estimation of some parameters are documented and justified. The rarity of the conditions made estimation of longer-term maternal and infant costs and quality-adjusted life-years challenging, resulting in likely under-estimation of healthcare costs. Conclusions: With standardisation and training, first-trimester ultrasound screening for fetal anomalies is clinically effective with over 90% detection for eight major conditions and low false-positive rates. Decision uncertainty around implementation is low and a prospective study would not be an efficient investment. Adding first-trimester anomaly screening to the current screening likely represents a cost-effective use of resources and is acceptable to parents. Future work: Focus on developing an implementation framework to modify the current United Kingdom Fetal Anomaly Screening Programme. Study registration: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42018111781 and CRD42018112434. Funding: This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme (NIHR award ref: 17/19/10) and is published in full in

Indexed as

Congenital AbnormalitiesPregnancy Trimester, FirstUltrasonography, PrenatalAdultCost-Benefit AnalysisFemaleHumansPregnancyProspective StudiesState MedicineUnited KingdomFETAL ABNORMALITIESFIRST TRIMESTERHEALTH ECONOMICSPOPULATION SCREENINGPREGNANCYSENSITIVITYSPECIFICITYSYSTEMATIC REVIEWULTRASOUNDVALUE OF INFORMATION

Identifiers

PMID40455571
PMCPMC12146947

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.