ArticleInternational journal of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease2025
The Cost-Effectiveness of a Personalised Early Warning Decision Support System (The COPDPredict™ System) to Predict and Prevent Acute Exacerbations of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.
Article in International journal of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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7 authors.
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Abstract
Purpose: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a respiratory disease associated with significant morbidity, mortality, and healthcare burden. Many COPD patients are frequent exacerbators, which has a significant impact on patient prognosis. Prompt exacerbation management using a digital tool, COPDPredict™ may support COPD patients in identifying exacerbations earlier to reduce hospital admissions. Methods: Trial-based cost-utility and cost-effectiveness analyses from the UK National Health Service perspective compared the cost-effectiveness of COPDPredict™ with usual care for a COPD GOLD stage B and D cohort. A model-based analysis was also performed by extrapolating data from the trial to obtain the-cost-utility over a 5-year time horizon. The de-novo model was constructed using GOLD stages A-D as the health states. Results: The imputed trial-based analysis showed that at a willingness to pay £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), COPDPredict™ was 65% likely cost-effective in COPD B and D patients over 6-months with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £11,669/QALY (incremental cost +£238.16 (106.42), Incremental QALY +0.02 (0.012)). The results were robust to complete case analyses over 6- and 12-months. A similar ICER (£11,862/QALY) was obtained when performing model-based analysis over 5-years. Cost-effectiveness was sensitive to long-term effectiveness, cost parameters and alternative model structure, with expected value of information analyses suggesting a significant benefit from future research targeting the long-term effectiveness of the intervention. Conclusion: COPDPredict™ is potentially cost-effective for COPD B and D patients. However, the small samples sizes upon which the results were obtained warrant further investigation.
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