ArticleMDM policy & practice
The Impact of Alternative Specifications of Uncertainty Relating to Extrapolation in Decision Models.
Article in MDM policy & practice. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
0 citing papers in PubMed.
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Economic evaluations that incorporate value-of-information analysis frequently conclude that the greatest information value relates to replicating short-term clinical trials. This study builds on recent guidance relating to extrapolation in economic evaluation by assessing the impact of alternative approaches to representing the uncertainty around unobserved/extrapolated data with respect to incremental outcomes and value of information. When the uncertainty over unobserved and observed data is considered distinct but correlated (i.e., has a joint distribution), it is demonstrated that the value to replicating short-term clinical studies is lessened and that further studies relating to the unobserved periods likely provide more value. Highlights: Current practice in economic evaluation often involves the inappropriate specification of uncertainty with respect to unobserved data.Appropriate specification of uncertainty will lead to more pertinent recommendations over future clinical studies.
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