Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40448113›Full record

ReviewMalaria journal2025

An integrative review of the combined use of mathematical and statistical models for estimating malaria transmission parameters.

Alessandro Grosso, Niel Hens, Steven Abrams

Abstract readReview
In one paragraph

Review in Malaria journal, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Alessandro GrossoGlobal Health Institute, Department of Family Medicine and Population Health, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium. alessandro.grosso@uantwerpen.be.
Niel HensData Science Institute, Interuniversity Institute for Biostatistics and statistical Bioinformatics, Hasselt University, Hasselt, Belgium.
Steven AbramsGlobal Health Institute, Department of Family Medicine and Population Health, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundCharacterizing malaria burden and its evolution is complicated by the high levels of spatio-temporal heterogeneity and by the complexity of the transmission process. MAIN BODY: This manuscript presents an integrative review of the combined use of mathematical and statistical models to estimate malaria transmission parameters. Therefore, this work aims to provide a solid methodological foundation for the estimation of transmission intensity and other relevant quantities. A perspective covering both mathematical and statistical models to appraise commonly used metrics is adopted and subsequently their inclusion as parameters in compartmental models as well as their estimation from available data is discussed. The current review argues in favour of a more widespread consideration of the Force of Infection (FOI) as a malaria transmission metric. Using the FOI dispenses the analyst from explicitly describing vector dynamics in compartmental modelling, simplifying the system of differential equations describing transmission dynamics. In turn, its estimation can be flexibly performed by solely relying on host data, such as parasitaemia or serology, avoiding the need for entomological data.

conclusionThe present work argues that the interaction between mathematical and statistical models, although previously exemplified by others, is underappreciated when modelling malaria transmission. Orienting the exposition around the FOI provides an illustration of the potential borne by the existing methodology. A connection between the two modelling frameworks warrants better scrutiny, as it leads to the possibility of exploiting the full range of modern statistical methods.

Indexed as

MalariaModels, StatisticalModels, TheoreticalAnimalsHumansForce of infectionMalaria transmissionMathematical modelsStatistical models

Identifiers

PMID40448113
PMCPMC12125835

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.