Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40447926›Full record

ReviewCommunications medicine2025

Identifying outbreak risk factors through case-controls comparisons.

Nina H Fefferman, Michael J Blum, Lydia Bourouiba, Nathaniel L Gibson, Qiang He, Debra L Miller, Monica Papeș, Dana K Pasquale, Connor Verheyen, Sadie J Ryan

Abstract readReview
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Review in Communications medicine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Microorganisms · 2026
    Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Nina H FeffermanDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA. nfefferm@utk.edu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0233-1404
Michael J BlumDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA.
Lydia BourouibaThe Fluid Dynamics of Disease Transmission Laboratory, Fluids and Health Network, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA.
Nathaniel L GibsonDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA.
Qiang HeDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7155-6474
Debra L MillerOne Health Initiative, School of Natural Resources and College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8544-174X
Monica PapeșDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA.
Dana K PasqualeDuke Department of Population Health Sciences, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, NC, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6686-7844
Connor VerheyenThe Fluid Dynamics of Disease Transmission Laboratory, Fluids and Health Network, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA.
Sadie J RyanDepartment of Geography, Quantitative Disease Ecology and Conservation (QDEC) Lab, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA. sjryan@ufl.edu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4308-6321

Funding

National Science Foundation (NSF) CCF #2200140National Science Foundation (NSF) DBI 2412115
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Outbreaks are typically investigated using approaches that aim to identify place- and context-dependent causative factors. As the focus is on understanding the basis of a specific outbreak, the resulting narratives are rarely suitable for forecasting risk or developing generalizable predictive and preventative measures. This Perspective article proposes applying a case-control framework as an outbreak epidemiological study design to promote evidence-based decision-making for prevention and response to outbreaks. The approach involves identifying counterfactuals, with case-control comparisons drawn to test hypotheses about conditions that manifest outbreaks. First, a framework is described for iterative multidisciplinary interrogation to elucidate and identify minimally sufficient sets of factors that lead to disease outbreaks. Next, example case-control comparison frameworks are discussed, centered on pathogen(s), influential contributor(s), or landscape(s), illustrated with examples focused on pathogen transmission.

Identifiers

PMID40447926
PMCPMC12125396

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.