Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40441659›Full record

Trial reportJournal of affective disorders2025

Depression is associated with treatment response trajectories in adults with Prolonged Grief Disorder: A machine learning analysis.

Adam Calderon, Matthew Irwin, Naomi M Simon, M Katherine Shear, Christine Mauro, Sidney Zisook, Charles F Reynolds, Matteo Malgaroli

Abstract readRandomized Controlled Trial
In one paragraph

Trial report in Journal of affective disorders, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
4citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

4 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Prolonged grief disorder in later life: advancing our understanding of biopsychosocial mechanisms to guide future personalized interventions.Neuropsychopharmacology : official publication of the American College of Neuropsychopharmacology · 2026
    Review
  4. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Adam CalderonDepartment of Psychiatry, New York University Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY, USA; Department of Psychology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.
Matthew IrwinDepartment of Psychiatry, New York University Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY, USA.
Naomi M SimonDepartment of Psychiatry, New York University Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY, USA.
M Katherine ShearColumbia School of Social Work, Columbia University College of Physicians and Surgeons, New York, NY, USA; Department of Psychiatry, Columbia University College of Physicians and Surgeons, New York, NY, USA.
Christine MauroDepartment of Biostatistics, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
Sidney ZisookDepartment of Psychiatry, University of California, San Diego, USA.
Charles F ReynoldsDepartment of Psychiatry, Western Psychiatric Institute and Clinic, University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
Matteo MalgaroliDepartment of Psychiatry, New York University Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY, USA. Electronic address: matteo.malgaroli@nyulangone.org.

Funding

UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH CLINICAL AND TRANSLATIONAL SCIENCE INSTITUTE: BPCAUL1RR024153 · NCRR · UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH · PI REIS, STEVEN E · 2006 to 2011
$73.9M
University of Pittsburgh Clinical and Translational Science InstituteUL1TR000005 · NCATS · UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH · PI REIS, STEVEN E · 2012 to 2015
$50.8M
RESEARCH TRAINING COREP60MD000207 · NIMHD · UNIV OF MARYLAND, COLLEGE PARK · PI THOMAS, STEPHEN B. · 2002 to 2011
$10.8M
RESEARCH METHODS COREP30MH090333 · NIMH · UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH · PI DEW, MARY AMANDA · 2011 to 2015
$8.3M
TRAUMATIC GRIEF TREATMENT--A RANDOMIZED CONTROLLED STUDYR01MH060783 · NIMH · UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH · PI DUAN, NAIHUA, SHEAR, M KATHERINE · 2000 to 2016
$4.0M
2/4-Optimizing Treatment of Complicated GriefR01MH085308 · NIMH · MASSACHUSETTS GENERAL HOSPITAL · PI SIMON, NAOMI M · 2009 to 2013
$2.0M
3/4-Optimizing Complicated Grief TherapyR01MH085288 · NIMH · UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH · PI REYNOLDS, CHARLES F. · 2009 to 2013
$1.7M
4/4-Optimizing Treatment of Complicated GriefR01MH085297 · NIMH · VETERANS MEDICAL RESEARCH FDN/SAN DIEGO · PI ZISOOK, SIDNEY · 2009 to 2013
$1.6M
Deep Learning Based Natural Language Processing Markers of Anxiety and DepressionK23MH134068 · NIMH · NEW YORK UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF MEDICINE · PI Matteo Malgaroli · 2023 to 2026
$982k
NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR000005NCRR NIH HHS UL1 RR024153NIMHD NIH HHS P60 MD000207NIMH NIH HHS K23 MH134068NIMH NIH HHS P30 MH090333NIMH NIH HHS R01 MH060783NIMH NIH HHS R01 MH085288NIMH NIH HHS R01 MH085297NIMH NIH HHS R01 MH085308
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundAlthough evidence-based Prolonged Grief Disorder treatments (PGDT) exist, pretreatment characteristics associated with differential improvement remain unidentified. To identify clinical factors relevant to optimizing PGDT outcomes, we used unsupervised and supervised machine learning to study treatment effects from a double-blinded, placebo-controlled, randomized clinical trial.

methodsPatients were randomized into four treatment groups for 20 weeks: citalopram with grief-informed clinical management, citalopram with PGDT, pill placebo with PGDT, or pill placebo with clinical management. The trial included 333 PGD patients aged 18-95 years (M = 53.9; SD = 14.4). Symptom trajectories were assessed using latent growth mixture modeling based on Inventory for Complicated Grief scores collected every 4 weeks. The relationship between patient-level characteristics and assigned trajectories was examined using logistic regression with elastic net regularization based on the administration of citalopram, PGDT, and risk factors for developing PGD.

resultsThree response trajectories were identified: lesser severity responders (60 %, n = 200), greater severity responders (18.02 %, n = 60), and non-responders (21.92 %, n = 73). Significant differences between greater severity responders and non-responders emerged by Week 8, persisting through the 6-month follow-up assessment. The elastic net model (AUC = 0.702; F1 = 0.777) indicated that higher baseline depression severity, grief-related functional impairment, and not receiving PGDT were associated with a decreased probability of response. LIMITATIONS: An independent validation cohort of PGDT patients is needed to further study generalizability of findings.

conclusionsDifferential PGDT courses and the role of depression severity and grief-related functional impairment in treatment non-response were identified. These findings underscore the importance of determining clinical factors relevant to optimizing individual treatment strategies.

Indexed as

CitalopramDepressionGriefMachine LearningAdolescentAdultAgedAged, 80 and overDouble-Blind MethodFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedTreatment OutcomeYoung AdultCitalopramCitalopramDepressionMachine learningProlonged Grief DisorderPsychotherapyTrajectories

Identifiers

PMID40441659
PMCPMC12276990

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.