Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40435932›Full record

ArticleThe International journal on drug policy2025

System dynamics modeling to inform implementation of evidence-based prevention of opioid overdose and fatality: A state-level model from the New York HEALing Communities Study.

Nasim S Sabounchi, Rachel L Thompson, Matthew R Lootens, David W Lounsbury, Gary Hirsch, Derek Blevins, Turner C Canty, Nabila El-Bassel, Louisa Gilbert, Pedro Mateu-Gelabert and 3 more

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in The International journal on drug policy, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors.

Nasim S SabounchiCenter for Systems and Community Design, Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, City University of New York, New York, NY, USA; Department of Health Policy and Management, Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, City University of New York, New York, NY, USA. Electronic address: nasim.sabounchi@sph.cuny.edu.
Rachel L ThompsonCenter for Systems and Community Design, Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, City University of New York, New York, NY, USA.
Matthew R LootensCenter for Systems and Community Design, Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, City University of New York, New York, NY, USA; Department of Health Policy and Management, Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, City University of New York, New York, NY, USA.
David W LounsburyDepartment of Epidemiology and Population Health, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, NY, USA.
Gary HirschCreator of Learning Environments, Wayland, MA, USA.
Derek BlevinsDivision of Substance Use Disorders, New York State Psychiatric Institute/Department of Psychiatry, Columbia University Irving Medical Center, New York, NY, USA.
Turner C CantyCenter for Systems and Community Design, Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, City University of New York, New York, NY, USA; Department of Health Policy and Management, Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, City University of New York, New York, NY, USA.
Nabila El-BasselSocial Intervention Group, School of Social Work, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
Louisa GilbertSocial Intervention Group, School of Social Work, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
Pedro Mateu-GelabertDepartment of Community Health and Social Sciences, Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, City University of New York, New York, NY, USA.
Daniel J FeasterDepartment of Public Health Sciences, Miller School of Medicine, University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA.
Bruce D RapkinDepartment of Epidemiology and Population Health, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, NY, USA.
Terry T-K HuangCenter for Systems and Community Design, Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, City University of New York, New York, NY, USA; Department of Health Policy and Management, Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, City University of New York, New York, NY, USA.

Funding

CHASE: An Innovative County-Level Public Health Response to the Opioid Epidemic in New York StateUM1DA049415 · NIDA · COLUMBIA UNIV NEW YORK MORNINGSIDE · PI EL-BASSEL, NABILA, GILBERT, LOUISA · 2019 to 2023
$77.3M
NIDA NIH HHS UM1 DA049415
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundAs part of the New York HEALing Communities Study, we modeled the opioid epidemic in New York State (NYS) to help coalition members understand short- and long-term capacity-building needs and trade-offs in choosing the optimal mix of harm reduction, treatment, and prevention strategies.

methodsWe built and validated a system dynamics simulation model of the interdependent effects of exposure to opioids, opioid supply and overdose risk, community awareness of overdose risk, naloxone supply and use, and treatment for opioid use disorder (OUD). We simulated overdose and fatality rates, OUD prevalence, and related measures from 2012 to 2032 for the NYS population aged ≥12 and tested policy scenarios for reducing future overdose deaths.

resultsIncreasing naloxone distribution by 50 % led to a 10 % decrease in overdose deaths, but only minimally reduced OUD prevalence (1 %) by 2032. Enhancing by 50 % medications for OUD (MOUD) initiations and prevention efforts each led to substantial decreases in deaths (29 % and 25 %, respectively) and OUD prevalence (27 % and 6 %) by 2032. Simultaneously increasing naloxone distribution and MOUD initiations by 50 % resulted in 38 % fewer deaths, while adding prevention efforts alongside resulted in 56 % fewer fatalities. Sensitivity analyses of the models' feedback loops demonstrated similar relative impacts.

conclusionsA combination of evidence-based strategies while also promoting prevention should be prioritized to reduce overdose fatality. Sustained community awareness and prevention efforts are needed even as overdoses and deaths decline due to the significant effects of the community awareness feedback loop on the epidemic trends.

Indexed as

Analgesics, OpioidDrug OverdoseOpiate OverdoseOpioid-Related DisordersAdolescentAdultFemaleHarm ReductionHumansMaleMiddle AgedModels, TheoreticalNaloxoneNarcotic AntagonistsNew YorkOpioid EpidemicAnalgesics, OpioidNaloxoneNarcotic AntagonistsCommunity-engaged interventionEvidence-based practicesHarm reductionImplementation researchMedications for opioid use disorderNaloxoneOpioid use disorderPolicy analysisSystem dynamics modeling

Identifiers

PMID40435932
PMCPMC13247838

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.