Large mammal population trends in Comoé National Park (1958-2022): Towards understanding their asymmetric decline and recovery in West Africa's largest savanna park.

Africa's wildlife decline has received increasing attention, yet underlying reasons have remained opaque. Using generalized additive models of 25 terrestrial and aerial counts, we present West Africa's first large herbivore population trend series alongside potential drivers. Following Comoé national park's creation in 1968, large herbivore populations increased till the mid-1980s, but subsequently declined, amplified during Côte d'Ivoire's political crisis (2002-2011) when active management ceased. Between 2010-2022, populations of roan, hartebeest and waterbuck have quasi-recovered to pre-crisis numbers. The previously dominant kob, common hippopotamus and savanna elephant have remained at c. 10% of their 1970-80s numbers, however. Grasslands declined from 15 to 2% between 1979-2020, negatively impacting kob and common hippopotamus. Since 1962, surrounding human populations and cattle inside the park increased over six-fold, yet the number of rangers only doubled. These developments have resulted in a different wildlife assemblage. Species typical of long-coarse shrub savanna - hartebeest and roan - have reached pre-crisis levels, contrary to kob and common hippopotamus likely because of the reduction of floodplain grasslands and their gregarious distribution rendering them vulnerable to poaching. We recommend increased efforts to understand habitat changes and poaching pressures, prior to re-introducing extinct species. This study highlights the importance but also the challenges of studying large herbivore populations trends alongside drivers of change.