ArticleAging clinical and experimental research2025
The impact of population aging on tuberculosis prevention and control in Shanghai: a prediction based on age-period-cohort models.
Article in Aging clinical and experimental research, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Optimizing Quality of Care for Elderly Tuberculosis Patients in Shanghai, China: Insights from Patient Cascade of Care and Patient Pathway Analysis.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2026Article
- A Clinical Prediction Model for Atypical Tuberculosis Manifestations Among Older Adults.Medicina (Kaunas, Lithuania) · 2025Article
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6 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundThe number and proportion of people aged 65 and above in Shanghai are increasing, posing challenges to tuberculosis (TB) control. This study aims to assess the impact of this demographic change on the TB epidemic in Shanghai.
methodsData were obtained from the TB Information Management System, with case counts and notification rates calculated by gender, age, and year. TB notification rates and trends were analyzed under two demographic scenarios: a constant aging scenario and an increasing aging scenario. Grey models (GM (1,1)) and age-period-cohort (APC) models were employed to forecast changes in the elderly population as well as age-specific TB notification rates. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) quantified trends over time.
resultsFrom 2015 to 2023, a total of 29,694 TB cases were reported, with males accounting for 69.79%. In 2023, the notification rate was 19.55 per 100,000, with the highest rate observed among individuals aged 65 years and older, reaching 48.47 per 100,000. The proportion of older adults among TB patients increased annually. Predictions indicated a peak notification rate among those aged 70-79 over the next five years. Compared to the constant aging scenario, the increasing aging scenario was associated with a more moderate reduction in TB notification rates (34.49% vs. 42.81%) and a slower declining trend over the study period (EAPC = -3.50, 95% CI: -4.70 to -2.29 vs. EAPC = -4.45, 95% CI: -5.47 to -3.42).
conclusionPopulation aging poses challenges to TB control, highlighting the need for targeted strategies for older adults.
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