ArticleBMJ open2025
Impact of race, sex and age on the probability of pancreatic cancer among patients with newly diagnosed diabetes in a claims-based cohort.
Article in BMJ open, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- High IntratumoralInternational journal of molecular sciences · 2026Pooled it
- Global surge in pancreatic cancer cases driven by ageing populations and modifiable risks.Journal of global health · 2026Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectivePancreatic cancer diagnoses are frequently preceded by a new diabetes diagnosis. Screening individuals newly diagnosed with diabetes could enable the earlier detection of pancreatic cancer. We sought to estimate the risk of pancreatic cancer by age, sex, race and time since diabetes diagnosis.
designClaims-based cohort study.
settingJohns Hopkins Medicine conducted this deidentified claims-based cohort study using the Optum Labs Data Warehouse.
participantsInsurance enrollees from 1/2008-9/2018 were identified as non-diabetic or newly diagnosed diabetic. Our risk set included 4 732 313 individuals (424 129 newly diabetic) in 5 844 934 enrolment periods. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Time to pancreatic cancer. Diabetes and cancer were defined using
resultsIndividuals with newly diagnosed diabetes were at an increased HR of pancreatic cancer, but this effect waned over time. The HR of pancreatic cancer following a diabetes diagnosis was higher in younger individuals and varied by race (lower HR in non-White individuals) (p<0.01, main effects and interactions). Thus, the probability of pancreatic cancer following a diabetes diagnosis was dependent on age, race and sex. For example, the 1-year probability of pancreatic cancer in a White male aged 75 was 0.45% (95%CI 0.41% to 0.49%) if they were newly diagnosed with diabetes and 0.090% (95%CI 0.084% to 0.096%) if they were free of diabetes. In contrast, the risk was lower at 0.15% (new-diabetic, 95% CI 0.13% to 0.16%) and 0.022% (diabetes free, 95%CI 0.020% to 0.023%) at age 55. The HR of pancreatic cancer for individuals with newly diagnosed diabetes compared with those free of diabetes was highest in the month following diagnosis (HR=14.7 and 9.6 for a 55 and 75 year old White male, respectively) but decreased in the following months, with a HR of 7.8 and 5.8 at 3 months, 5.6 and 4.1 at 6 months, and 3.9 and 2.8 at 1 year (p<0.01).
conclusionsConsideration of the age-race-sex specific probability of pancreatic cancer and time since diabetes diagnosis is necessary when evaluating the risk of pancreatic cancer following a diabetes diagnosis.
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