ArticleBMC public health2025
Development of a prediction rule for incomplete vaccination among children in Indonesia.
Article in BMC public health, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
backgroundChildhood vaccination is a fundamental public health intervention, playing an essential role in improving health outcomes and preventing serious infections. Despite proven benefits of vaccination programs, its coverage in Indonesia remains inadequate over the years. Therefore, this study aims to develop a prediction rule using intrapersonal, interpersonal, organizational, community, and policy-related factors to distinguish between Indonesian children < 2 years at high and low risk of incomplete vaccination.
methodsThe prediction rule was developed using cross-sectional data from the 2017 Indonesia Demographic Health Survey. Data on vaccination status was obtained from a vaccination card, which was filled out by health care providers during vaccination. Multivariable logistic regression was applied to develop a prognostic score based on the regression coefficients of associated parental intrapersonal, interpersonal, organizational, community, and policy-related factors. Discrimination of the model was assessed with Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve.
resultsThe sample population in this study comprised 3,790 respondents, and 2,414 (63·7%) were incompletely vaccinated. Several factors such as a mother at young age, absence of a mobile telephone, limited antenatal care attendance, absence of postnatal checks within two months after birth, had not received tetanus vaccination during pregnancy, and low socio-economic status were independently associated with incomplete vaccination. The area under curve (AUC) of the model was 0·67, which showed moderate discrimination, but was acceptable. Using a cut-off score of > 20 points, only half of the parents with a high probability of incompletely vaccinated children are selected with a sensitivity of 60% and specificity of 64%, and only 41% of parents with incompletely vaccinated children are missed.
conclusionThis novel, easy-to-use prediction rule could be a useful tool to complement current strategies and further encourage tailored vaccine uptake interventions, particularly to parents with a high chance of incompletely vaccinated children in Indonesia.
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