ArticleThe Lancet. Global health2025
Identifying gaps in the HIV treatment cascade in Africa: a model comparison study.
Article in The Lancet. Global health, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed.
- Population HIV Viremia and Epidemic Transition: Findings From Sequential Surveys in 6 Sub-Saharan African Countries.Open forum infectious diseases · 2026Article
- HIV diagnosis and treatment status in individuals dying from HIV in Zimbabwe, Malawi, and South Africa: A model comparison analysis.PLoS medicine · 2026Article
- Contextual Drivers of HIV Vulnerability and Retention in Care in the Central African Republic: An Ecological Analysis.AIDS and behavior · 2026Article
- Readability and information quality of LLM-Generated HIV content: a methodological content evaluation.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- The HIV/AIDS pandemic: where are we now?AIDS (London, England) · 2025Article
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Authors and funding
20 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundAlthough HIV incidence has considerably decreased in eastern, central, and southern Africa, new HIV infections continue to be a major public health challenge in the region. We aimed to investigate where in the HIV treatment cascade new transmissions are occurring in Malawi, Zimbabwe, and South Africa (the three countries involved in the Modelling to Inform HIV Programmes in Sub-Saharan Africa project).
methodsIn this model comparison study, we used six well described and independently calibrated HIV transmission dynamics models that have been used to inform HIV policy in Africa (Optima HIV, EMOD, Goals, Thembisa, PopART-IBM, and HIV Synthesis) to estimate and predict the proportion of annual new HIV transmissions attributable to people living with HIV who are undiagnosed, have been diagnosed but have not yet started antiretroviral therapy (ART), are receiving ART, and have interrupted ART in Malawi, Zimbabwe, and South Africa from 2010 to 2040 stratified by the age and sex of the individual acquiring HIV.
findingsDespite the different model structures and underlying assumptions, the six models were well aligned in relation to key HIV epidemic characteristics (including population estimates and HIV prevalence) in each of the three settings. There was, however, considerable variation in the predicted number of new infections, particularly in Malawi and Zimbabwe where this number ranged from fewer than 10 000 new infections to over 30 000 new infections in 2024. Most model results suggested that the mean age of HIV acquisition has been increasing since 2000, with men acquiring HIV at an older age than women in all three settings. All models attributed fewer than 5% of transmissions to individuals who had been diagnosed but had not yet started ART. In Malawi, the proportion of transmissions attributable to undiagnosed people with HIV in 2024 ranged from 33·3% to 75·3% across the models, and transmissions attributable to individuals who had experienced interrupted treatment ranged from 8·4% to 20·1%. In Zimbabwe, the proportion of transmissions attributable to undiagnosed individuals in 2024 ranged from 29·8% to 64·6% across the models and the proportion of transmissions attributable to individuals who had interrupted treatment ranged from 4·7% to 21·5%. In South Africa, 21·8-46·4% of transmissions in 2024 were attributable to undiagnosed individuals and 27·6-58·9% of transmissions were attributable to individuals who had interrupted treatment.
interpretationAcross the three study settings, a substantial proportion of new HIV transmissions were attributable to undiagnosed individuals and people who have received interrupted ART, reinforcing the importance of continuing HIV testing and ART re-engagement and retention interventions.
fundingThe Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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