Noninvasive prediction of failure of the conservative treatment in lateral epicondylitis by clinicoradiological features and elbow MRI radiomics based on interpretable machine learning: a multicenter cohort study.

objectivesTo develop and validate an interpretable machine learning model based on clinicoradiological features and radiomic features based on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to predict the failure of conservative treatment in lateral epicondylitis (LE).

methodsThis retrospective study included 420 patients with LE from three hospitals, divided into a training cohort (n = 245), an internal validation cohort (n = 115), and an external validation cohort (n = 60). Patients were categorized into conservative treatment failure (n = 133) and conservative treatment success (n = 287) groups based on the outcome of conservative treatment. We developed two predictive models: one utilizing clinicoradiological features, and another integrating clinicoradiological and radiomic features. Seven machine learning algorithms were evaluated to determine the optimal model for predicting the failure of conservative treatment. Model performance was assessed using ROC, and model interpretability was examined using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP).

resultsThe LightGBM algorithm was selected as the optimal model because of its superior performance. The combined model demonstrated enhanced predictive accuracy with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.96 (95% CI: 0.91, 0.99) in the external validation cohort. SHAP analysis identified the radiological feature "CET coronal tear size" and the radiomic feature "AX_log-sigma-1-0-mm-3D_glszm_SmallAreaEmphasis" as key predictors of conservative treatment failure.

conclusionsWe developed and validated an interpretable LightGBM machine learning model that integrates clinicoradiological and radiomic features to predict the failure of conservative treatment in LE. The model demonstrates high predictive accuracy and offers valuable insights into key prognostic factors.