Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40398326›Full record

ArticleVaccine2025

Effect of the 2022 COVID-19 booster vaccination campaign in people aged 50 years in England: Regression discontinuity analysis in OpenSAFELY-TPP.

Andrea L Schaffer, William J Hulme, Elsie Horne, Edward P K Parker, Venexia Walker, Catherine Stables, Amir Mehrkar, Seb C J Bacon, Chris Bates, Ben Goldacre and 4 more

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Vaccine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

14 authors.

Andrea L SchafferBennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. Electronic address: andrea.schaffer@phc.ox.ac.uk.
William J HulmeBennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Elsie HornePopulation Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK; National Institute of Health and Care Research, Bristol Biomedical Research Centre, Bristol, UK.
Edward P K ParkerLondon School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Protection Research Unit in Vaccines and Immunisation, London, UK.
Venexia WalkerPopulation Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK; Department of Surgery, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, USA.
Catherine StablesBennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Amir MehrkarBennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Seb C J BaconBennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Chris BatesTPP, TPP House, Leeds, UK.
Ben GoldacreBennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Alex J WalkerBennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
OpenSAFELY Collaborative
Miguel A HernánCAUSALab, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, USA; Departments of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, USA.
Jonathan A C SternePopulation Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK; National Institute of Health and Care Research, Bristol Biomedical Research Centre, Bristol, UK; Health Data Research UK South-West, Bristol, UK.

Funding

Wellcome Trust 222097
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are highly effective in preventing severe COVID-19 but require boosting to maintain protection. Changes to circulating variants and prevalent natural immunity may impact on real-world effectiveness of boosters. With NHS England approval, we used linked routine clinical data from >24 million patients to evaluate the effectiveness of the 2022 combined COVID-19 autumn booster and influenza vaccine campaign in non-clinically vulnerable 50-year-olds in England using a regression discontinuity design. Our primary outcome was a composite of 6-week COVID-19 emergency attendance, COVID-19 unplanned hospitalisation, or death. By 26 November 2022, booster vaccine coverage was 11.1 % at age 49.75 years increasing to 39.7 % at age 50.25 years. The estimated effect of the campaign on the risk of the primary outcome in 50-year-olds during weeks 7-12 after the start of the campaign was -0.4 per 100,000 (95 % CI -7.8, 7.1). The results were similar when using different follow-up start dates or when estimating the effect of vaccination (rather than the campaign). This study found little evidence that the autumn 2022 vaccination campaign in England was associated with a reduction in severe COVID-19-related outcomes among non-clinically vulnerable 50-year-olds. Possible explanations include the low risk of severe outcomes and substantial pre-existing vaccine- and infection-induced immunity. The booster campaign may have had effects beyond those we estimated, including reducing virus transmission and incidence of mild or moderate COVID-19.

Indexed as

COVID-19COVID-19 VaccinesImmunization ProgramsImmunization, SecondaryAgedEnglandFemaleHospitalizationHumansInfluenza VaccinesMaleMiddle AgedSARS-CoV-2VaccinationCOVID-19 VaccinesInfluenza VaccinesCovid-19InfluenzaSars-cov-2Vaccination

Identifiers

PMID40398326
PMCPMC7618680

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.