ArticleEuropean spine journal : official publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society2025
Identifying and validating prognostic parameters to predict curve progression in adolescents with idiopathic scoliosis.
Article in European spine journal : official publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Prediction models for curve progression in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis: a systematic review with exploratory meta-analysis of discrimination.BMC musculoskeletal disorders · 2026Pooled it
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
purposeThis study aimed to identify and validate prognostic factors to predict scoliosis progression.
methodsOne hundred sixty-two girls, aged 13.5 ± 1.7 years old, diagnosed with idiopathic scoliosis were recruited. One hundred were used for model development, and 62 for testing, in which the number of progression cases was 25 and 11, respectively. All participants were scanned by an ultrasound (US) system for two consecutive visits (baseline and follow-up). The baseline parameters included (a) demographic: age, body mass index (BMI), and menarche status; (b) radiographic: X-ray Cobb angle, number-of-curve (NOC), and Risser sign; (c) ultrasonic: US Cobb, maximum axial vertebral rotation (AVR), Cobb angle at the plane of maximum curvature (PMC), kyphotic angle (KA) and reflection coefficient (RC) index. For the follow-up visit, only the US Cobb was recorded. The demographic and X-ray parameters were extracted from the scoliosis clinical records. The US parameters were measured by trained raters with good measurement reliability. The prediction model was developed using logistic regression analysis.
resultsThe final predictors were US Cobb change, RC index, and NOC, and the probability of curve progression risk was Log (p/1-p) = -1.40 + 0.28(US Cobb change)-39.45(RC) + 1.36 (NOC). The model achieved sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of 90% on the 62 test dataset, which was much better than using US Cobb change only.
conclusionsThe results indicated that participants with lower RC (weaker bone, RC ≤ 0.06), larger US Cobb change (≥ 5°), and multiple curvatures (NOC > 1) were at a higher risk of curve progression. A large study including more progression cases is needed for further validation.
Indexed as
Identifiers
40397146What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.