ArticleBMJ public health2025
Modelling the potential spread of Clade Ib MPXV in Asian cities.
Article in BMJ public health, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Dynamics of global mpox epidemics, 1970-2025: a systematic review and meta-analysis of evolving transmissibility and intervention effects.BMJ global health · 2026Pooled it
- First documented human case of mpox: Implications for global surveillance, public health and policy.Journal of Taibah University Medical Sciences · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Background: The ongoing 2023-2024 mpox outbreak in several African countries, driven by the novel Clade Ib strain, has resulted in imported cases being reported in Sweden, Thailand and India. The potential high transmissibility of this new strain and shifts in transmission modes may make territories in Asia, which were minimally affected by previous mpox waves, susceptible to community-wide transmission following importation. While this highlights the importance of early preparedness, current knowledge of the virus's transmission dynamics remains too limited to effectively inform policymaking and resource planning. Methods: A compartmental model was constructed to characterise potential mpox transmission dynamics. Importation-triggered outbreaks were simulated in 37 Asian cities under scenarios with one, three and five initial local infections. The impacts of various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including isolation and quarantine, were projected and compared. Findings: Our simulations revealed substantial disparities in outbreak sizes among the 37 Asian cities with large-scale outbreaks expected in territories with a high proportion of sexually active individuals at risk or low immunity from smallpox vaccination. Total case counts in 1 year following initial local infections would increase linearly with initial infection size. In the scenario with three initial local infections, up to 340 cases per million residents were expected without interventions. Isolation for diagnosed cases was projected to lower the outbreak size by 43.8% (IQR: 42.7-44.5%), 67.8% (IQR: 66.5-68.9%), 80.8% (IQR: 79.5-82.0%) and 88.0% (IQR: 86.8-89.1%) when it reduced interpersonal contacts by 25%, 50%, 75% and 100%, respectively. Quarantining close contacts would contribute to a further decrease in cases of up to 22 percentage points over 1 year. Interpretation: A potential mpox outbreak in an Asian setting could be alleviated through strong surveillance and a timely response from stakeholders. NPIs are recommended for outbreak management due to their demonstrated effectiveness and practicability.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.