Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40389495›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2025

Spatial change, time tendency and projection to HIV/AIDS incidence in an eastern province of China.

Yiwei Li, Shijia Yuan, Yang Zhao, Xingguang Yang, Hongyu Li, Yanlin Lv, Wenhui Gao, Surong Zhao, Ronghang Liu, Chunlei Han

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

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Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Yiwei Li *Binzhou Medical University Hospital, Binzhou, 256600, Shandong, China.
Shijia Yuan *Binzhou Medical University Hospital, Binzhou, 256600, Shandong, China.
Yang ZhaoSchool of Health Management, Binzhou Medical University, Yantai, 264003, China. zhaoyang001@hsc.pku.edu.cn.
Xingguang YangShandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan, 250013, Shandong, China.
Hongyu LiBinzhou Medical University Hospital, Binzhou, 256600, Shandong, China.
Yanlin LvSchool of Public Health, Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan, 750004, Gansu, China.
Wenhui GaoBinzhou Medical University Hospital, Binzhou, 256600, Shandong, China.
Surong ZhaoBinzhou Medical University Hospital, Binzhou, 256600, Shandong, China.
Ronghang LiuBinzhou Medical University Hospital, Binzhou, 256600, Shandong, China.
Chunlei HanBinzhou Medical University Hospital, Binzhou, 256600, Shandong, China. chunleihan@bzmc.edu.cn.

Funding

National Natural Science Foundation Project 72374033Shandong Province social science planning research project 22CRKJ01
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivesAs the second most populous province in China, it would have public implications to analyze spatial change, time tendency and prediction analysis of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) epidemic in Shandong Province. Statistical projection study. Spatial autocorrelation model and spatiotemporal scanning analysis were used to describe the spatial and temporal distribution of HIV/AIDS incidence in Shandong Province from 2012 to 2022, and geographical weighted regression model and geographic detector model were used to analyze the influencing factors. The annual incidence rate of AIDS in Shandong Province from 2023 to 2030 was predicted by using the fitted Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (ARIMA). From 2012 to 2022, the incidence of AIDS in Shandong Province grows from 1/10 thousand to 2.48/10 thousand. Spatial regressions showed that the tertiary sector GDP ratio is the factor with the highest intensity of influence. AIDS incidence shows an overall decreasing trend from east to west across Shandong Province. It is predicted that the AIDS incidence rate in Shandong province will continue to rise from 2023 to 2030, with a projected rate of 6.33/10 thousand in 2030. From 2012 to 2022, the incidence of AIDS in Shandong Province increased and then decreased, and regional differences were revealed as well. It is predicted that the incidence of AIDS in Shandong Province would have an increasing trend from 2023 to 2030.

Indexed as

Acquired Immunodeficiency SyndromeHIV InfectionsChinaHumansIncidenceSpatio-Temporal AnalysisAIDS predictionARIMA modelChinaShandong provinceSpatial correlation modelSpatiotemporal scanning analysis

Identifiers

PMID40389495
PMCPMC12089622

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