ArticleAnnals of gastroenterological surgery2025
Updated risk prediction model for pancreaticoduodenectomy using data from the National Clinical Database in Japan.
Article in Annals of gastroenterological surgery, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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8 citing papers in PubMed.
- The modified Blumgart anastomosis is associated with a lower incidence of clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula and a shorter anastomotic time: a prospective cohort study with a historical control group.Surgery in practice and science · 2026Article
- Salvage pancreaticoduodenectomy for localized recurrence after resection of ascending colon cancer: a case report.Clinical journal of gastroenterology · 2026Article
- Neoadjuvant and adjuvant treatment for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma in patients over 80 years old based on a nationwide clinical database.Journal of gastroenterology · 2026Article
- The National Clinical Database Risk Calculator and the 5-Item Modified Frailty Index Predict the Development of Postoperative Delirium After Surgery for Hepatocellular Carcinoma.Annals of gastroenterological surgery · 2026Article
- Which Method Best Predicts Postoperative Complications: Deep Learning, Machine Learning, or Conventional Logistic Regression?Annals of gastroenterological surgery · 2026Review
- Research on risk assessment and predictive model for gastrointestinal fistula after gastrectomy based on F-index scoring system.BMC gastroenterology · 2026Article
- International Comparison of Geriatric-Associated Variables in Major Gastroenterological Surgery Between National Clinical Database and American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program.Annals of gastroenterological surgery · 2025Article
- Updated risk prediction model for pancreaticoduodenectomy using data from the National Clinical Database in Japan.Annals of gastroenterological surgery · 2025Article
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9 authors.
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Abstract
Aim: Risk prediction models for mortality, severe postoperative complications, and postoperative pancreatic fistula in patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy were established using data from the National Clinical Database more than a decade ago, and the surgical outcomes of pancreaticoduodenectomy have improved over the years. The aim of this study is to update the risk prediction model for pancreaticoduodenectomy using National Clinical Database data. Methods: Between 2019 and 2021, the data of 35 365 patients who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy and who were registered in the National Clinical Database were retrospectively analyzed. According to the registration year, the patients were divided into two cohorts: the development cohort (2019-2020; Results: Overall, the rates of surgical mortality, severe postoperative complications, and grade C postoperative pancreatic fistula were 1.8%, 2.2%, and 1.3%, respectively. Logistic regression analyses revealed 28, 28, and 14 risk factors for surgical mortality, severe postoperative complications, and grade C postoperative pancreatic fistula, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the risk model in the development cohort was 0.759 for surgical mortality, 0.712 for severe complications, and 0.699 for postoperative pancreatic fistula, comparable to the validation cohort. The calibration plots were favorable in both cohorts. Conclusion: The updated risk model for pancreaticoduodenectomy will be useful to predict surgical mortality, severe postoperative complications, and grade C postoperative pancreatic fistula.
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