ArticleNature communications2025
Competition between transmission lineages mediated by human mobility shapes seasonal influenza epidemics in the US.
Article in Nature communications, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed.
- Mobility-informed metapopulation models predict the spatio-temporal spread of respiratory epidemics across scales.BMC global and public health · 2026Article
- A spatio-temporal causal network for multi-scale analysis of infectious respiratory diseases transmission.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2026Article
- Unified climate factors predict influenza outbreak seasonality across tropical and temperate regions.PNAS nexus · 2026Article
- Spatiotemporal instability of influenza seasonality during viral co-circulation.NPJ systems biology and applications · 2026Article
- The Representativeness of Regional Influenza Virus Genomic Surveillance for National Trends in the United States.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Manipulating vector transmission reveals local processes inParasitology · 2026Article
- Global region-specific influenza early warning by establishing an epidemic intensity threshold system: a modeling study.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Inferring epidemiological parameters under an infectious phylogeography model with visitor dynamics.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Due to its climatic variability, complex mobility networks and geographic expanse, the United States represents a compelling setting to explore the transmission processes that lead to heterogeneous yearly seasonal influenza epidemics. By analyzing genomic and epidemiological data collected in the US from 2014 to 2023, we show that epidemics consisted of multiple co-circulating transmission lineages that could emerge from all regions and often rapidly expanded. Lineage spread was characterized by strong spatiotemporal hierarchies and lineage size correlated with timing of establishment in the US. Mechanistic epidemic simulations, supported by phylogeographic analyses, suggest that competition between lineages on a network of human mobility consistent with commuting flows drove lineage dynamics. Our results suggest that the processes that disseminate viruses nationwide are highly structured, but variability in the short-term processes that determine the locations, timing, and explosiveness of initial epidemic sparks limits predictability of regional and national epidemics.
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