Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40381911›Full record

ArticleJournal of advanced research2026

Trends, patterns, and risk factors of esophageal cancer mortality in China, 2008-2021: A National Mortality Surveillance System data analysis.

Yunfei Jiao, Tinglu Wang, Lin Fu, Ye Gao, Zhiyuan Cheng, Lei Xin, Jinfang Xu, Han Lin, Wei Wang, Maigeng Zhou and 3 more

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of advanced research, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
7citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

7 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Identification ofTranslational cancer research · 2026
    Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors.

Yunfei JiaoDepartment of Gastroenterology, Changhai Hospital, Naval Medical University, Shanghai 200433, China; National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Diseases, Shanghai 200433, China.
Tinglu WangDepartment of Gastroenterology, Changhai Hospital, Naval Medical University, Shanghai 200433, China; National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Diseases, Shanghai 200433, China.
Lin FuNational Clinical Research Center for Digestive Diseases, Shanghai 200433, China; Department of Gastroenterology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Baotou Medical College, Baotou Medical College, Baotou 014000, China.
Ye GaoDepartment of Gastroenterology, Changhai Hospital, Naval Medical University, Shanghai 200433, China; National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Diseases, Shanghai 200433, China.
Zhiyuan ChengNational Clinical Research Center for Digestive Diseases, Shanghai 200433, China; Department of Gastroenterology, Shanghai General Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200240, China.
Lei XinDepartment of Gastroenterology, Changhai Hospital, Naval Medical University, Shanghai 200433, China; National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Diseases, Shanghai 200433, China.
Jinfang XuDepartment of Health Statistics, Naval Medical University, Shanghai 200433, China.
Han LinDepartment of Gastroenterology, Changhai Hospital, Naval Medical University, Shanghai 200433, China; National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Diseases, Shanghai 200433, China.
Wei WangDepartment of Gastroenterology, Changhai Hospital, Naval Medical University, Shanghai 200433, China; National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Diseases, Shanghai 200433, China.
Maigeng ZhouNational Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
Jinlei QiNational Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China. Electronic address: qijinlei@ncncd.chinacdc.cn.
Zhaoshen LiDepartment of Gastroenterology, Changhai Hospital, Naval Medical University, Shanghai 200433, China; National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Diseases, Shanghai 200433, China. Electronic address: zhsl@vip.163.com.
Luowei WangDepartment of Gastroenterology, Changhai Hospital, Naval Medical University, Shanghai 200433, China; National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Diseases, Shanghai 200433, China. Electronic address: wangluoweimd@126.com.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionAccording to the International Agency for Research on Cancer, China had the highest mortality burden of esophageal cancer (EC) globally in 2022.

objectivesThis study aims to analyze the national and provincial trends, patterns, and risk factors of EC deaths in China.

methodsData from the National Mortality Surveillance System were used to estimate national and provincial deaths, age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs), and years of life lost (YLL). An age-period-cohort-based Nordpred model was used to predict trends until 2030. Multilevel Poisson and logistic regression were conductedto assess factors influencing EC mortality and the place of death.

resultsFrom 2008 to 2021, EC deaths and YLLs decreased from 227,677 to 167,529 and from 5.32 million to 3.50 million, respectively. Meanwhile, the ASMR and age-standardized YLL rate decreased from 24.34 to 11.01 per 100,000 and from 535.91 to 231.08 per 100,000, respectively. By 2030, EC deaths and ASMR are predicted to decline to 150,768 and 7.85 per 100,000, respectively. Nationwide, the average age at death increased from 68.46 to 72.45 years, with an increasing proportion of YLLs in the 65-69 age group. Overall premature mortality was observed to decrease, except for an increase in YLLs among urban populations aged ≥60 years. Higher burdens were observed in rural areas compared to urban areas and among males compared to females. Nationwide, individuals with agriculture-related occupations and lower educational levels exhibited significantly higher risks of EC death. Regions with higher prevalences of smoking and harmful drinking, and lower educational, economic, and medical levels were significantly associated with high mortality. Home was the leading place of EC deaths (80.02 %).

conclusionThe EC mortality burden in China is decreasing but remains a significant threat to public health. Promoting education, occupational prevention, healthy lifestyles, and medical treatment for targeted populations and regions is essential.

Indexed as

Esophageal NeoplasmsAdultAgedAged, 80 and overChinaFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedRisk FactorsChinaEsophageal cancerMortalityPlace of deathRisk factorsTrends

Identifiers

PMID40381911
PMCPMC12869257

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.