Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40381016›Full record

ArticleEuropean spine journal : official publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society2025

Spinal phenotypes on MRI and X-ray alone cannot predict short-term progression of lumbar disc degeneration.

Wallead Al-Jaeafee, Ulf Krister Hofmann, Miguel Pishnamaz, Frank Hildebrand, Matthias Gatz

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In one paragraph

Article in European spine journal : official publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Two trajectories of lumbar disc degeneration from adolescence to adulthood: a 23-year longitudinal MRI study.European spine journal : official publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society · 2026
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Wallead Al-JaeafeeRWTH Aachen University, Aachen, Germany. dr.aljaeafee.w@hotmail.de.
Ulf Krister HofmannDepartment of Orthopaedic, Trauma and Reconstructive Surgery, Division of Arthroplasty, Aachen, Germany.
Miguel PishnamazUniversitätsklinikum Aachen, Aachen, Germany.
Frank HildebrandUniversitätsklinikum Aachen, Aachen, Germany.
Matthias GatzDepartment of Orthopaedic, Trauma and Reconstructive Surgery, Division of Arthroplasty, Aachen, Germany.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionDifferent lumbar phenotypes impact the biomechanical properties and might lead to progressive degeneration of the spine. This study aims to investigate whether lumbar phenotypes observed through X-rays and MRIs can predict the progression of intervertebral disc degeneration (IVDD).

methodsA retrospective longitudinal cohort study was conducted to identify important variables for the progression of intervertebral disc degeneration (IVDD). The study included n = 279 patients (n = 1395 discs), who respectively underwent two lumbar magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) exams with an interval between 1 and 4 years. The Pfirrmann grade was allocated to score IVDD. Lateral standing X-rays evaluated sacral slope, lumbar lordosis, spondylolisthesis, and osteophytes. Anteroposterior X-rays examined lumbar scoliosis and pelvic obliquity. Sagittal MRI T2 imaging assessed muscle atrophy, intervertebral disc level (IVD), end plate defects, Modic changes, annular tears, disc protrusion, extrusion, sequestration, IVD height, and Pfirrmann grade. Axial T2 imaging evaluated facet joint angles. The study used correlation analysis and conditional logistic regression analysis to identify significant variables.

resultsThe likelihood to contribute to the progression IVDD was 100% for end plate defect. Protrusion follows closely at 88%, the female gender shows a likelihood of 72%, lower IVD level has a likelihood of 45%, the sacral slope is present at 40%, osteophytes have a possibility of 37%, suggesting they also play a role in the progression of IVDD. Weak positive correlations with IVDD progression are noted: r =.056 (sacral slope), 0.146 (disc level), 0.057 (osteophytes), 0.066 (end plate defect), 0.130 (protrusion), and 0.068 (sequesters).

conclusionLumbar phenotypes like sacral slope, disc level, osteophytes, end plate defect, and protrusion were the most predictive phenotypes for IVDD progression. Relying solely on lumbar phenotypes may not provide, however, enough specificity and sensitivity for predicting IVDD progression.

Indexed as

Intervertebral Disc DegenerationLumbar VertebraeMagnetic Resonance ImagingAdultAgedDisease ProgressionFemaleHumansLongitudinal StudiesMaleMiddle AgedPhenotypeRadiographyRetrospective StudiesIntervertebral disc degeneration progressionLumbar phenotypesMagnetic resonance imagingMechanical stressPrognostic factors

Identifiers

PMID40381016

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.