ArticleTobacco induced diseases2025
Global, regional, and national trends in tobacco-induced cardiovascular disease burden for 1990-2021 with projections to 2045: A comprehensive analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.
Article in Tobacco induced diseases, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed.
- Article
- Review
- Predictive value of aortic propagation velocity for cardiovascular events in asymptomatic individuals with elevated ASCVD risk.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Changes in combustible cigarette and electronic nicotine delivery system use among people with and without schizophrenia spectrum disorders in the USA (2016-2023).Tobacco control · 2026Article
- The declining but persistent burden of lower respiratory infections from secondhand smoke in children aged under 14 years: Global trends 1990-2021 and forecasts to 2035, based on a secondary dataset analysis of Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021.Tobacco induced diseases · 2026Article
- Sociodemographic and behavioral factors associated with time to first cigarette upon waking: Findings from the Malaysian national tobacco survey 2023.Tobacco induced diseases · 2026Article
- Sex-specific global burden of cardiometabolic and respiratory diseases attributable to secondhand smoke exposure: Insights from the global burden of disease study 2021.International journal of cardiology. Cardiovascular risk and prevention · 2025Article
- Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
11 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
introductionTobacco use is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD), and its global disease burden trends require further clarification. This study aims to analyze trends in global CVD burden attributable to tobacco in 1990-2021 and project mortality rates and disease burden through 2045.
methodsUsing Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021 data, we analyzed temporal trends using age-period-cohort models, evaluated change points with Joinpoint regression, and conducted forecasting using Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models.
resultsIn 2021, tobacco-attributable CVD deaths reached 2.147 million globally (71.3% increase from 1990), although age-standardized mortality rates decreased to 25.36 per 100000 (83.3% reduction). Mortality rates were lowest in high SDI regions (326.71 per 100000) and highest in low-middle sociodemographic index (SDI) regions (788.05 per 100000). The proportion of deaths among those aged ≥80 years increased from 19.2% to 26.2%. Global mortality rates decreased by 1.8% annually, with a greater decline in females (-2.6%) than males (-1.6%). Projections suggest that by 2045, global CVD deaths may reach approximately 3.267 million (52.1% potential increase), although age-standardized mortality rates are expected to decrease to around 38.6 per 100000 (15.9% estimated reduction). Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) are projected to potentially increase to 75.755 million (39.9% estimated increase), while age-standardized DALY rates could decline to approximately 1008.02 per 100000.
conclusionsBetween 1990 and 2021, global tobacco-attributable CVD mortality rates showed a declining trend, with notable regional, sex, and age disparities. Projections indicate that while age-standardized rates will continue to decrease, absolute numbers of deaths and disease burden will increase. The findings emphasize the need to strengthen tobacco control and CVD prevention in low-middle SDI regions.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.