Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40374984›Full record

ArticleNPJ digital medicine2025

Monitoring the opioid epidemic via social media discussions.

Delaney A Smith, Adam Lavertu, Aadesh Salecha, Tymor Hamamsy, Keith Humphreys, Anna Lembke, Mathew V Kiang, Russ B Altman, Johannes C Eichstaedt

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in NPJ digital medicine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
7citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

7 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Delaney A Smith *Biochemistry Department, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, 94305, USA.
Adam Lavertu *Department of Biomedical Data Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 94305, USA.
Aadesh SalechaDepartment of Psychology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 94305, USA.
Tymor HamamsyCenter for Data Science, New York University, New York, NY, 10011, USA.
Keith HumphreysDepartment of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 94305, USA.
Anna LembkeDepartment of Psychiatry, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 94305, USA.
Mathew V KiangEpidemiology and Population Health, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 94305, USA.
Russ B AltmanDepartment of Biomedical Data Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 94305, USA.
Johannes C EichstaedtDepartment of Psychology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 94305, USA. johannes.stanford@gmail.com.

Funding

SCH: Advancing Language-based Analyses of Social Media to Reliably Monitor Variation in PopulationR01MH125702 · NIMH · STATE UNIVERSITY NEW YORK STONY BROOK · PI EICHSTAEDT, JOHANNES C., SCHWARTZ, HANSEN ANDREW · 2021 to 2024
$1.2M
Computational methods for characterizing sources of variability in drug responseR35GM153195 · NIGMS · STANFORD UNIVERSITY · PI RUSS BIAGIO ALTMAN · 2024 to 2026
$1.0M
Tracking the opioid epidemic with social media: an early warning systemR21DA057598 · NIDA · STANFORD UNIVERSITY · PI ALTMAN, RUSS BIAGIO · 2022 to 2022
$433k
Department of Veterans Affairs Health System Research Service RCS 04-141-3NIDA NIH HHS R21 DA057598NIGMS NIH HHS R35 GM153195NIH HHS DA057598NIMH NIH HHS R01 MH125702NSF GRFP 2019286895
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The opioid epidemic persists in the U.S., with over 80,000 deaths annually since 2021, primarily driven by synthetic opioids. Responding to this evolving epidemic requires reliable and timely information. One source of data is social media platforms. We assessed the utility of Reddit data for surveillance, covering heroin, prescription, and synthetic drugs. We built a natural language processing pipeline to identify opioid-related content and created a cohort of 1,689,039 Reddit users, each assigned to a state based on their previous Reddit activity. We measured their opioid-related posts over time and compared rates against CDC overdose and NFLIS report rates. To simulate the real-world prediction of synthetic opioid overdose rates, we added near real-time Reddit data to a model relying on CDC mortality data with a typical 6-month reporting lag. Reddit data significantly improved the prediction accuracy of overdose rates. This work suggests that social media can help monitor drug epidemics.

Identifiers

PMID40374984
PMCPMC12081907

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.