ArticleBMC public health2025
Time trends in multiple myeloma incidence and mortality across the BRICS from 1992 to 2021 and projection to 2046.
Article in BMC public health, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed.
- A Comparative Analysis of Multiple Myeloma Disease Burden in China and Globally From 1990 to 2023 and Future Trend Projections.Cancer medicine · 2026Article
- Efficacy and Safety of Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma Combination Therapies: A Systematic Review Integrating Network Meta-Analysis and Real-World Vigilance Study.Pharmaceuticals (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Review
- Lactylation-related multigene signature in multiple myeloma: integrated prognostic stratification, immune landscape profiling, and therapeutic guidance.Immunologic research · 2025Article
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
Abstract
objectiveThis study evaluates the long-term trends in Multiple Myeloma (MM) incidence, mortality, and Age-Period-Cohort (APC) effects in the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa).
methodsData on age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Joinpoint regression model was used to estimate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) and annual percentage change (APC) trends from 1992 to 2021, and the Age-Period-Cohort model evaluated nonlinear impacts of age, period, and cohort effects. Projections to 2046 were calculated using Bayesian APC modeling.
resultsFrom 1992 to 2021, MM incidence and death cases in the BRICS nations increased nearly four to fivefold, with ASIR and ASMR nearly doubling. China and India had lower ASIR and ASMR than other BRICS countries despite accounting for over half of cases and deaths. South Africa consistently had the highest ASIR and ASMR in both 1992 and 2021. China experienced a significant increase in ASIR (AAPC 4.92%, p < 0.001) and ASMR (AAPC 4.07%, p < 0.001) over the past three decades. MM incidence and mortality increased with aging, and the age effect on MM was more pronounced among individuals aged greater than 40 years. Birth cohorts' impact on MM varied greatly between BRICS, with China suffering the largest risk increase among those born after the 1970s. Projections indicate ASIR and ASMR will reach 2.44 and 1.82 per 100,000 by 2046, continuing to rise across the BRICS nations.
conclusionsMM burden is rapidly increasing in the BRICS, closely tied to population aging. Targeted strategies addressing each country's unique challenges are essential as the burden continues to grow.
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