ArticleRenal failure2025
Development and validation of a risk prediction model for autologous arteriovenous fistula thrombosis in patients receiving maintenance hemodialysis.
Article in Renal failure, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed.
- The impact of frailty on the survival prognosis of maintenance hemodialysis patients and the construction and validation of a survival prediction model.International urology and nephrology · 2026Article
- Risks of arteriovenous fistula failure in hemodialysis patients older than 75 years.Clinical and experimental nephrology · 2026Article
- An interpretable nomogram with SHAP analysis predicts thrombotic failure of forearm arteriovenous fistulas.Frontiers in surgery · 2026Article
- Red Blood Cell Distribution Width as a Risk Factor for Late Arteriovenous Fistula Thrombosis in Maintenance Hemodialysis Patients: A Retrospective Cohort Study.International journal of general medicine · 2026Article
- Comparative Efficacy and Safety of Drug-Coated Balloon Angioplasty versus Conventional Balloon Angioplasty for Arteriovenous Access Stenosis in Hemodialysis Patients.International journal of general medicine · 2026Article
- Serum magnesium and risk of arteriovenous fistula thrombosis in hemodialysis: a retrospective cohort study.BMC nephrology · 2025Article
- Establishment and Evaluation of Nomogram Model for Predicting the Risk of Arteriovenous Fistula Dysfunction in Patients Undergoing MHD.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
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6 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundThrombosis can lead to fistula failure and affect the smooth progress of hemodialysis. This study aims to develop and validate a nomogram for predicting the risk of autologous arteriovenous fistula thrombosis in patients undergoing maintenance hemodialysis.
methodsA total of 1,016 patients who underwent hemodialysis at a tertiary A hospital in East China from February 2020 to March 2024 were retrospectively enrolled. The participants were randomly divided into a training set (711 people) and a validation set (305 people) at a ratio of 7:3. A risk prediction model was established according to the results of multivariate logistic regression analysis. The performance of the model was evaluated with the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), calibration curve analysis, the Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) test and decision curve analysis (DCA).
resultsThe incidence of autologous arteriovenous fistula thrombosis in patients on maintenance hemodialysis was 32%. High-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), catheterization history, hemodialysis duration, autologous arteriovenous fistula stenosis and non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDL-C) were independent risk factors for autologous arteriovenous fistula thrombosis. These five predictors were used to construct a predictive nomogram. The AUC was 0.818 in the training set and 0.826 in the validation set. The calibration curve of the nomogram was close to the standard curve, indicating that the model was well calibrated. The DCA results confirmed that the model provided good net clinical benefits.
conclusionIn this study, a predictive nomogram for arteriovenous fistula thrombosis was established and validated.
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