ArticlePloS one2025
Geographical characteristics and formation mechanisms of smallpox epidemics in Hubei Province, China, 1488-1949.
Article in PloS one, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed.
- The spatio-temporal patterns and formation mechanisms of cholera epidemics in Hubei Province, China from 1949 to 2020.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Smallpox is a highly contagious and ancient disease influenced by natural and social factors. These factors led to the wide spread of smallpox in Hubei Province of China during the historical period. We conducted the spatial and temporal distribution patterns of smallpox epidemics and their formation mechanism in Hubei Province of China during 1488-1949. Based on epidemic history and environmental data, we used M-K test, wavelet analysis, spatial autocorrelation model, epidemic center of gravity model and geographically weighted regression models.In terms of temporal changes, the earliest smallpox in Hubei Province can be traced to the Ming Dynasty. Smallpox epidemics in the Republic of China showed fluctuating and changing trends; in 1939, incidences of smallpox grew abruptly. Smallpox epidemics in the Republic of China occurred on a fluctuating cycle of two time scales: 8 years and 18 years. The epidemic season was mainly spring and summer.Smallpox epidemics in Hubei Province had a wide spatial scope and exhibited spreading and diffusion characteristics; three towns of Wuhan, Suixian and Yichang were the centers of the epidemics. Smallpox epidemics exhibited significant spatial concentrations; high concentration areas occurred mainly in Wuchang, Hankou and Hanyang. The center of gravity of the epidemics exhibited a small swing from east to west and gradually shifted to the west.River networks, road networks, wars and other factors promoted smallpox epidemics; river networks and war factors were significant in eastern Hubei Province; road network factors were significant in southern Hubei Province; and droughts somewhat inhibited smallpox epidemics in western Hubei Province. Temperature fluctuations, droughts and floods, and war outbreaks played dominant roles in the temporal characteristics of smallpox epidemics in Hubei Province, and topography, population distribution and population movement played dominant roles in the spatial distribution pattern of smallpox epidemics in Hubei Province. We must establish and improve an epidemic monitoring and early warning system, pay attention to key areas, strengthen inspection and quarantine, stockpile smallpox vaccines, develop therapeutic drugs, and strengthen prevention of bioterrorism. Our study revealed how smallpox spreads in terms of both spatial and temporal patterns and mechanisms, and based on this, we can propose preventive and control measures against smallpox reemergence and its similar viruses.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.