ArticleEnvironmental health perspectives2025
Projections of Heat-Related Mortality in Chinese Cities: The Roles of Climate Change, Urbanization, Socioeconomic Adaptation, and Landscape-Level Strategies.
Article in Environmental health perspectives, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
backgroundPhysiological heat strain induced by extreme temperatures in cities has led to significant heat-related deaths. Although socioeconomic adaptation is suggested to mitigate this issue, its effectiveness is limited. Conversely, there is a lack of comprehensive evaluation on the effectiveness of landscape-level strategies for mitigating heat-related deaths.
objectivesWe developed a comprehensive modeling framework to estimate the impacts of environmental stresses and mitigating strategies on heat-related deaths in China's cities from 2016 to 2055.
methodsThe framework assesses future heat-related deaths through five experiments considering the influences of climate change, urbanization, socioeconomic adaptation, and landscape-level strategies. We used extrapolated region-specific exposure-response functions (ERF) and recent advancement of geo-statistics for public health to generate urban patch level ERF curves. We used these curves and temperature and population data to generate future heat-related deaths with a
resultsOur analyses estimated that heat-related mortality will increase from DISCUSSION: Our framework helps to systematically understand the effectiveness of landscape-level strategies in reducing heat-related mortality. Future sustainable city management should prioritize landscape-level strategies along with socioeconomic adaptation to support healthy and comfortable communities. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP15010.
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