Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40358051›Full record

Observational studyCritical care explorations2025

Age and Saving Lives in Crisis Standards of Care: A Multicenter Cohort Study of Triage Score Prognostic Accuracy.

Michael Hermsen, Patrick G Lyons, Govind Persad, Alice F Bewley, Chengsheng Mao, Kaveri Chhikara, Anoop Mayampurath, Matthew Churpek, Monica E Peek, Yuan Luo and 1 more

Abstract readMulticenter StudyObservational Study
In one paragraph

Observational study in Critical care explorations, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Michael HermsenDepartment of Medicine, University of Wisconsin School of Medicine and Public Health, Madison, WI.ORCID 0000-0001-8334-9694
Patrick G LyonsDepartment of Medicine, Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO.
Govind PersadUniversity of Denver Sturm College of Law, Denver, CO.
Alice F BewleyDepartment of Medicine, Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO.
Chengsheng MaoNorthwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, IL.
Kaveri ChhikaraDepartment of Medicine, University of Chicago Pritzker School of Medicine, Chicago, IL.
Anoop MayampurathDepartment of Medicine, University of Wisconsin School of Medicine and Public Health, Madison, WI.
Matthew ChurpekDepartment of Medicine, University of Wisconsin School of Medicine and Public Health, Madison, WI.
Monica E PeekDepartment of Medicine, University of Chicago Pritzker School of Medicine, Chicago, IL.
Yuan LuoNorthwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, IL.
William F ParkerDepartment of Medicine, University of Chicago Pritzker School of Medicine, Chicago, IL.ORCID 0000-0002-6000-3153

Funding

Improving the efficiency and equity of critical care allocation during a crisis with place-based disadvantage indicesR01LM014263 · NLM · UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO · PI William F Parker · 2023 to 2026
$2.0M
Mending a Broken Heart Allocation System with Machine LearningK08HL150291 · NHLBI · UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO · PI PARKER, WILLIAM F · 2020 to 2024
$713k
NHLBI NIH HHS K08 HL150291NLM NIH HHS R01 LM014263
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

importanceCurrent protocols to triage life support use scores that are biased and inaccurate.

objectivesTo determine if adding age to triage protocols used in disaster scenarios improves the identification of critically ill patients likely to survive. DESIGN, SETTING, AND

participantsObservational cohort study from March 1, 2020, to March 1, 2022, at 22 hospitals in three networks, divided into derivation (12 hospitals) and validation cohorts (ten hospitals). Participants were critically ill adults (90% COVID-19 positive) who would have needed life support during an overwhelming case surge. Life support was defined as vasoactive medications for shock, invasive or noninvasive mechanical ventilation, or oxygen therapy with Pao2/Fio2 less than 200. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary outcome was death in the intensive care unit. We fit logistic regression models using a modified Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score with and without age in the derivation cohort and assessed predictive performance in the validation cohort using area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) and compared observed and predicted mortality.

resultsThe final analysis contained 7,660 patients with 16,711 life-support episodes. In the validation cohort, the AUC for age plus SOFA was significantly higher than the AUC for SOFA alone (0.66 vs. 0.54; p < 0.001). SOFA score substantially overpredicted mortality (13% predicted vs. 5% observed) for younger patients (< 40 yr) and underestimated mortality (14% predicted vs. 31% observed) for older patients (> 80 yr). In contrast, age plus SOFA had good calibration overall and across age groups. The addition of age improved but did not eliminate differences between observed and predicted mortality across racial-ethnic groups. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Age-inclusive triage better identifies ICU survivors than SOFA alone and is more equitable. Incorporating age into prioritization algorithms could save more lives in a crisis scenario.

Indexed as

COVID-19Critical IllnessLife Support CareStandard of CareTriageAdultAgedAge FactorsCohort StudiesFemaleHospital MortalityHumansIntensive Care UnitsMaleMiddle AgedOrgan Dysfunction Scoresage factorsmedical ethicsprognostic factorSequential Organ Failure Assessment scoretriage

Identifiers

PMID40358051
PMCPMC12074069

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.