ArticleBMC ecology and evolution2025
Modelling of past, current and future distribution of suitable habitat for Menelik's bushbuck (Tragelaphus sylvaticus meneliki Neumann, 1902) in the Ethiopian highlands.
Article in BMC ecology and evolution, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
backgroundWildlife species adapted to the Afro-alpine highlands are vulnerable to loss of habitat due to global warming accompanying potential upward shifts and elevational range contractions of their preferred habitats. Understanding the trends in the shift of suitable habitats of endemic taxa is key to planning the conservation and management of species. Therefore, this study aimed to model the distribution of Menelik's bushbuck, a spiral-horned antelope endemic to Ethiopian highlands across the past (Last Glacial Maximum, and Mid-Holocene), present, and future.
methodsWe performed the ensemble modelling implemented in the "sdm" R package using 6 modelling techniques (MaxEnt, Generalized Linear Model, Generalized Additive Model, Random Forest, Boosted Regression Tree, and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines). We combined 248 occurrence points of Menelik's bushbuck with 12 climatic, topographic, and anthropogenic variables. We selected these variables from originally 24 variables using the VIF step procedure to avoid highly correlated predictor variables for the final model run.
resultsThe performance of the ensemble model was excellent having AUC = 0.97 and TSS = 0.88 values. Bio6 (minimum temperature of the coldest month) contributed most to the distribution of Menelik's bushbuck followed by bio12 (annual precipitation) and elevation. The model projection estimated the suitable habitat of Menelik's bushbuck steadily decreases with increasing representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios and projection years. The current suitable habitat of this species is estimated to be 25,546 km
conclusionMelelik's bushbuck has lost suitable habitat since the LGM and the loss will be greatest in the future due to climate change and land use change. The sharp decline of the suitable habitat will greatly threaten the future survival of the species. Our modelling can assist in identifying potential refuge areas for the species to assist in its preservation.
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