Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40346862›Full record

ArticleThe Laryngoscope2025

Malignant Transformation Rate of Oral Premalignant Disorders: A Large Database Analysis.

Andrew Meci, Neerav Goyal, David Goldenberg

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in The Laryngoscope, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
12citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

12 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Andrew MeciThe Pennsylvania State University College of Medicine, Hershey, Pennsylvania, USA.
Neerav GoyalThe Pennsylvania State University College of Medicine, Hershey, Pennsylvania, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-7783-1097
David GoldenbergThe Pennsylvania State University College of Medicine, Hershey, Pennsylvania, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-2822-4116

Funding

Penn State Clinical and Translational Science InstituteUL1TR002014 · NCATS · PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV HERSHEY MED CTR · PI KRASCHNEWSKI, JENNIFER L. · 2016 to 2025
$33.7M
NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR002014
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivesOral leukoplakia (OL), oral lichen planus (OLP), and oral submucous fibrosis (OSF) are precancerous lesions known to progress to oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC). The transformation rates to OSCC are controversial and have been based on small, heterogeneous, single-institution studies. We present the largest study to date looking at the malignant transformation rates of these oral premalignant disorders (OPMD).

methodsWe conducted a retrospective cohort study within the TriNetX database. Patients aged ≥ 18 with a diagnosis of OL, OLP, and OSF between 2008 and 2018 were included, allowing for up to 5 years of follow-up. The primary outcome was the 5-year rate of OSCC transformation compared to a control cohort. Secondary outcomes included treatment pathways and survival. Descriptive and comparative statistics were conducted using TriNetX software.

resultsTotally, 59,204 patients with diagnosed OL, OLP, or OSF were included. The average age of all included patients was 55.8 ± 14.1; the majority were female (n = 31,805, 53.7%) and white (n = 33,867, 57.2%). Rates of nicotine and alcohol dependence were 8.7% and 2.8%, respectively. The 5-year malignant transformation rates of OL, OLP, and OSF were 15.6%, 1.4%, and 18.6% (p < 0.01 compared to control), with an overall malignant transformation rate of 6.2% (p < 0.01 compared to control). The 5-year Kaplan-Meier survival probability was 94.3%.

conclusionsOur results indicate the rates at which patients with OPMD (OL, OLP, and OSF) progress to OSCC are higher than previously reported. Transformation rates for OL and OSF in particular underscore the need for close monitoring and prompt treatment to avoid malignant transformation. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Retrospective cohort study-Level 3.

Indexed as

Carcinoma, Squamous CellCell Transformation, NeoplasticLeukoplakia, OralLichen Planus, OralMouth NeoplasmsOral Submucous FibrosisPrecancerous ConditionsAdultAgedDatabases, FactualFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedRetrospective Studiesdatabase studyoral leukoplakiaoral lichen planusoral squamous cell carcinomasubmucous fibrosis

Identifiers

PMID40346862
PMCPMC12353564

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.