Applying causality to environmental security in Iraq.

Despite major advances in environmental security research, non-experimental observations typically rely on methods that retrieve or validate specific linkages, rather than uncovering broader causal mechanisms underlying environmentally driven armed conflict. This article demonstrates how recent advances in causal methodology can be applied to more comprehensively retrieve and validate a network of such linkages. By retrieving a more integrated causal structure of pathways from environmental variables to conflict activity, we offer a novel methodological perspective on how causal relationships among environmental, demographic, agricultural and armed conflict variables can be identified, and how associated causal hypotheses can be tested. To uncover these pathways and infer causal effects of natural conditions on conflict activity, we apply this methodology to non-experimental observations of armed conflict across Iraqi subdistricts. Our findings support the hypotheses that latent energy and soil moisture indirectly cause conflict activity. While confirming that armed conflict is positively mediated by population density, the results do not support the hypothesis that wheat production negatively mediates conflict. Finally, we discuss our methodological approach, clarify its limitations, propose future research directions, and consider the implications for evidence-based policy interventions.