Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40338148›Full record

ArticleCancer discovery2025

Trends in Cancer Incidence and Mortality Rates in Early-Onset and Older-Onset Age Groups in the United States, 2010-2019.

Meredith S Shiels, Anika T Haque, Amy Berrington de González, M Constanza Camargo, Megan A Clarke, Brittny C Davis Lynn, Eric A Engels, Neal D Freedman, Gretchen L Gierach, Jonathan N Hofmann and 5 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Cancer discovery, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 34 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
34citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

34 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Guideline
  3. Young Women Diagnosed With Breast Cancer: Why Is No One Telling Me to Get a Mammogram?Journal of nursing scholarship : an official publication of Sigma Theta Tau International Honor Society of Nursing · 2026
    Article
  4. Article
  5. Review
  6. Article
  7. Recent trends in Early-Onset cancer incidence rates.Journal of the National Cancer Institute · 2026
    Article
  8. Review
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Review
  15. Review
  16. Heterogeneity in Survival Over Time by Age, Sex, and Subsite in Early-Onset Oral Cavity Cancer.Otolaryngology--head and neck surgery : official journal of American Academy of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery · 2026
    Article
  17. Is Heavy Alcohol Use Associated With Young-Onset Pancreatic Cancer?Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology · 2026
    Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

15 authors.

Meredith S ShielsDivision of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, Maryland.ORCID 0000-0001-8390-6091
Anika T HaqueDivision of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, Maryland.ORCID 0000-0002-0619-9300
Amy Berrington de GonzálezClinical Cancer Epidemiology Group, The Institute of Cancer Research, London, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0002-7332-8387
M Constanza CamargoDivision of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, Maryland.ORCID 0000-0002-1065-2198
Megan A ClarkeDivision of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, Maryland.ORCID 0000-0003-0435-7376
Brittny C Davis LynnDivision of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, Maryland.ORCID 0000-0001-6761-4857
Eric A EngelsDivision of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, Maryland.ORCID 0000-0003-0203-6958
Neal D FreedmanDivision of Cancer Control and Population Science, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, Maryland.ORCID 0000-0003-0074-1098
Gretchen L GierachDivision of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, Maryland.ORCID 0000-0002-0165-5522
Jonathan N HofmannDivision of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, Maryland.ORCID 0000-0002-1043-5812
Rena R JonesDivision of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, Maryland.ORCID 0000-0003-1294-1679
Erikka LoftfieldDivision of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, Maryland.ORCID 0000-0002-3573-8748
Rashmi SinhaDivision of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, Maryland.ORCID 0000-0002-2466-7462
Lindsay M MortonDivision of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, Maryland.ORCID 0000-0001-9767-2310
Stephen J ChanockDivision of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, Maryland.ORCID 0000-0002-2324-3393

Funding

Institute of Cancer Research (ICR)Intramural NIH HHS Z99 CA999999National Cancer Institute (NCI) Intramural Research Program
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

We estimated age-standardized cancer incidence (2010-2019) and mortality rates (2010-2022) in the United States to investigate whether cancer rates have increased at younger ages. Fourteen cancers had incidence rates that increased in at least one early-onset age group (i.e., 15-29-, 30-39-, and 40-49-year-olds)-9 of these also increased in at least one older-onset age group (i.e., 50-59, 60-69, and 70-79; i.e., female breast, colorectal, kidney, testicular, uterine and pancreatic cancers, and several lymphoid neoplasms). The largest absolute increases in 2019 compared with expected diagnoses based on 2010 rates were female breast (n = 4,834 additional cancers), colorectal (n = 2,099), kidney (n = 1,793), and uterine cancers (n = 1,209). Although there were not concomitant increases in mortality rates for most cancers, colorectal, uterine, and testicular cancer mortality rates increased in early-onset age groups. The drivers of increasing incidence rates are cancer-specific and could include a combination of established and perhaps new etiologic factors, and increased detection. SIGNIFICANCE: In the United States, incidence rates of some cancers have increased in early-onset age groups. For many of these cancers, rates have also increased in older-age groups, suggesting that the impact of changes in risk factor prevalence and/or improvements in detection could affect risk across the age range. See related commentary by Cann and Eng, p. 1309.

Indexed as

NeoplasmsAdolescentAdultAgedAged, 80 and overAge of OnsetFemaleHumansIncidenceMaleMiddle AgedMortalityUnited StatesYoung Adult

Identifiers

PMID40338148
PMCPMC12226221

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.