Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40329367›Full record

ArticleAIDS research and therapy2025

Global, regional and national burden of HIV/AIDS among individuals aged 15-79 from 1990 to 2021.

Yuanfang Chen, An-Dong Li, Yizhou Yang, Jing Lu, Yu Xu, Xinyu Ji, Liting Wu, Lei Han, Baoli Zhu, Ming Xu

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in AIDS research and therapy, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
19citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

19 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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  17. Phytochemicals fromMicroorganisms · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Yuanfang Chen *Engineering Research Center of Health Emergency, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No.172 Jiangsu Road, Nanjing, 210009, China.
An-Dong Li *Engineering Research Center of Health Emergency, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No.172 Jiangsu Road, Nanjing, 210009, China.
Yizhou Yang *Engineering Research Center of Health Emergency, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No.172 Jiangsu Road, Nanjing, 210009, China.
Jing LuDepartment of STD and HIV/AIDS Control and Prevention, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, 210009, China.
Yu XuEngineering Research Center of Health Emergency, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No.172 Jiangsu Road, Nanjing, 210009, China.
Xinyu JiEngineering Research Center of Health Emergency, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No.172 Jiangsu Road, Nanjing, 210009, China.
Liting WuSchool of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, 211166, China.
Lei HanSchool of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, 211166, China.
Baoli ZhuEngineering Research Center of Health Emergency, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No.172 Jiangsu Road, Nanjing, 210009, China.
Ming XuEngineering Research Center of Health Emergency, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No.172 Jiangsu Road, Nanjing, 210009, China. sosolou@jscdc.cn.

Funding

Jiangsu Science and Technology Think Tank Program (Youth) Project JSKX24056Program of Jiangsu Province Engineering Research Center of Health Emergency ERCHE2022001 and ERCHE2022002Research Program of Health Commission of Jiangsu Province K2023001
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundHIV/AIDS persists as a global health challenge despite significant advancements in antiretroviral therapy (ART). The transformation of HIV into a chronic condition, coupled with regional disparities and evolving epidemiological trends, necessitates an updated analysis of the disease burden.

methodsWe conducted a comprehensive analysis of HIV/AIDS burden among individuals aged 15-79 years from 1990 to 2021 using the latest data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 database. Multiple statistical approaches were employed to investigate temporal trends, geographic variations, and health inequalities.

resultsFrom 1990 to 2021, global HIV/AIDS age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) decreased by 41%, while age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPR), mortality rates (ASMR), and disability-adjusted life year rates increased by 222%, 57%, and 59%, respectively. Sub-Saharan Africa demonstrated the highest HIV/AIDS ASPR in 2021, with High-middle and Middle SDI regions, particularly Oceania, South Asia, and Eastern Europe, experiencing the most significant ASPR growth over three decades. Joinpoint analysis identified 1997 and 2015 as critical years for ASIR declines, and 2004 for ASMR reductions. Decomposition analysis revealed population growth as the primary driver of increasing incidence in lower SDI regions, while epidemiological changes were more influential in higher SDI areas. The age-period-cohort model showed peak HIV/AIDS incidence among individuals aged 25-34, with diminishing incidence risk across successive birth cohorts and periods. Health inequality analysis from 1990 to 2021 revealed a substantial widening of disparities across countries, with the slope index of inequality rising from 265 to 1006.

conclusionWhile global efforts have reduced HIV/AIDS incidence, increasing prevalence due to extended survival with antiretroviral therapy presents ongoing challenges. Regional disparities and rising incidence among specific demographics underscore the need for sustained, targeted interventions.

Indexed as

Acquired Immunodeficiency SyndromeGlobal Burden of DiseaseGlobal HealthHIV InfectionsAdolescentAdultAgedCost of IllnessDisability-Adjusted Life YearsFemaleHumansIncidenceMaleMiddle AgedPrevalenceRisk FactorsAge-period-cohort analysisGlobal Burden of Disease (GBD)Health inequalitiesHIV/AIDSSocio-Demographic Index (SDI)

Identifiers

PMID40329367
PMCPMC12057008

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.