ArticleBMC medical imaging2025
Nomogram-based prediction of the prognosis in patients with free floating venous thrombus after closed traumatic fracture.
Article in BMC medical imaging, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
backgroundFree-floating venous thrombosis (FFVT), a distinct subtype of deep vein thrombosis (DVT), is associated with pulmonary thromboembolism (PTE) and carries a high mortality risk.
objectiveThis study aimed to develop a nomogram to predict the prognosis of FFVT in patients with closed traumatic fractures. MATERIALS AND
methodsA retrospective analysis of clinical and ultrasound data from 326 patients with FFVT post-closed traumatic fractures was conducted. Patients were divided into training (n = 240, January 2019-June 2023) and validation (n = 86, June 2023-June 2024) sets. Prognostic risk factors were identified using LASSO and multivariable logistic regression. A nomogram was constructed using R Studio, and its predictive accuracy was validated via calibration curves, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and external validation.
resultsIndependent risk factors for FFVT progression to closed thrombus included D-dimer levels, FFVT location, collateral blood flow volume around the thrombus, and thrombus margins (P < 0.05). The model demonstrated high discriminative ability, with a C-index of 0.945. ROC analysis revealed areas under the curve (AUC) of 0.949 (training set) and 0.924 (validation set). Calibration curves confirmed strong agreement between predicted and observed outcomes.
conclusionThe nomogram provides an accurate prognostic tool for FFVT in patients with closed traumatic fractures, aiding clinical decision-making to improve patient outcomes. CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER: Not applicable.
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