ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2025
A half-century of climate change in major agricultural regions: Trends, impacts, and surprises.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed.
- Vulnerability to high temperature shapes global warming impacts on rice yield.Science advances · 2026Article
- Keeping Green and Functional: Photosynthetic Integrity and Leaf Area Underpin Waterlogging Tolerance in Bread Wheat.Plants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- k-mer-based approaches to unlock genebank genomics for targeted crop improvement.Nature genetics · 2026Review
- QnAs with David B. Lobell.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- A half-century of climate change in major agricultural regions: Trends, impacts, and surprises.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Reactive oxygen species-post translational modifications-central carbon metabolism regulatory loop: coordination of redox homeostasis and carbon flux allocation in plants under abiotic stress.Frontiers in plant science · 2025Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Efforts to anticipate and adapt to future climate can benefit from historical experiences. We examine agroclimatic conditions over the past 50 y for five major crops around the world. Most regions experienced rapid warming relative to interannual variability, with 45% of summer and 32% of winter crop area warming by more than two SD (σ). Vapor pressure deficit (VPD), a key driver of plant water stress, also increased in most temperate regions but not in the tropics. Precipitation trends, while important in some locations, were generally below 1σ. Historical climate model simulations show that observed changes in crops' climate would have been well predicted by models run with historical forcings, with two main surprises: i) models substantially overestimate the amount of warming and drying experienced by summer crops in North America, and ii) models underestimate the increase in VPD in most temperate cropping regions. Linking agroclimatic data to crop productivity, we estimate that climate trends have caused current global yields of wheat, maize, and barley to be 10, 4, and 13% lower than they would have otherwise been. These losses likely exceeded the benefits of CO
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Registered trials
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