Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40322192›Full record

ArticleGastroenterology research2025

Procalcitonin as a Predictor of Mortality in Patients With Severe Acute Pancreatitis.

Luis Ricardo Ramirez-Gonzalez, Leonardo Rafael Ordonez-Forestiery, Andrea Garcia, Maximiliano Cesar Iniguez-Martin-Del-Campo, Francia Damary Llamas-Hernandez, Kathia Dayana Morfin-Meza, Samantha Emily Gonzalez-Munoz, Carlos Enrique Capetillo-Texson, Jose Pablo Gomez-Sierra, Luis Osvaldo Suarez-Carreon and 7 more

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Article in Gastroenterology research, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Review
  3. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

17 authors.

Luis Ricardo Ramirez-GonzalezDepartment of General Surgery, Specialty Hospital, Western National Medical Center, Mexican Institute of Social Security, Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico.
Leonardo Rafael Ordonez-ForestieryDepartment of General Surgery, Specialty Hospital, Western National Medical Center, Mexican Institute of Social Security, Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico.
Andrea GarciaBiomedical Research Unit 02, Specialty Hospital, Western National Medical Center, Mexican Institute of Social Security, Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico.
Maximiliano Cesar Iniguez-Martin-Del-CampoBiomedical Research Unit 02, Specialty Hospital, Western National Medical Center, Mexican Institute of Social Security, Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico.
Francia Damary Llamas-HernandezBiomedical Research Unit 02, Specialty Hospital, Western National Medical Center, Mexican Institute of Social Security, Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico.
Kathia Dayana Morfin-MezaBiomedical Research Unit 02, Specialty Hospital, Western National Medical Center, Mexican Institute of Social Security, Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico.
Samantha Emily Gonzalez-MunozBiomedical Research Unit 02, Specialty Hospital, Western National Medical Center, Mexican Institute of Social Security, Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico.
Carlos Enrique Capetillo-TexsonBiomedical Research Unit 02, Specialty Hospital, Western National Medical Center, Mexican Institute of Social Security, Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico.
Jose Pablo Gomez-SierraBiomedical Research Unit 02, Specialty Hospital, Western National Medical Center, Mexican Institute of Social Security, Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico.
Luis Osvaldo Suarez-CarreonDepartment of General Surgery, Specialty Hospital, Western National Medical Center, Mexican Institute of Social Security, Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico.
Gabino Cervantes-GuevaraDepartment of Welfare and Sustainable Development, University Center of the North, University of Guadalajara, 46200, Colotlan, Jalisco, Mexico.
Enrique Cervantes-PerezDepartment of Internal Medicine, Hospital Civil de Guadalajara Fray Antonio Alcalde, Centro Universitario de Ciencias de la Salud, Universidad de Guadalajara, Guadalajara 44280, Jalisco, Mexico.
Sol Ramirez-OchoaDepartment of Internal Medicine, Hospital Civil de Guadalajara Fray Antonio Alcalde, Centro Universitario de Ciencias de la Salud, Universidad de Guadalajara, Guadalajara 44280, Jalisco, Mexico.
Andrea Socorro Alvarez-VillasenorDepartment of Medical Education and Health Research, Mexican Institute of Social Security, La Paz, Baja California Sur, Mexico.
Ana Olivia Cortes-FloresDepartment of Oncological Surgery, ONKIMIA, Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico.
Alejandro Gonzalez-OjedaFaculty of Medicine of the University of Colima, Colima, Mexico.
Clotilde Fuentes-OrozcoBiomedical Research Unit 02, Specialty Hospital, Western National Medical Center, Mexican Institute of Social Security, Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a severe inflammatory disorder that begins with the inappropriate activation of pancreatic enzymes within acinar cells due to biliary reflux, alcohol abuse, gallstones, and autoimmune disease. Several biomarkers have been studied that may aid in the early detection of pancreatic necrosis. The aim of this project was to evaluate the usefulness of procalcitonin (PCT) in predicting mortality in patients with severe AP in Mexican population. Methods: An observational study, including 59 patients diagnosed with AP from 2018 to 2023, was conducted in a tertiary care hospital. Serum PCT levels were assessed on the first and third days of hospitalization (24 and 72 h). Results: A total of 59 patients were included, and the main etiologies were lithiasis (28 patients, 47.5%) and endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) (nine patients, 15.3%). Of the total patients, 16 (27.1%) died during their hospital stay, and the main etiologies were septic shock of abdominal origin (10 patients, 62.5%) followed by extra-abdominal shock (six patients, 37.5%). The average PCT level was 4.54 ± 8.12 on the first day of hospital stay, and 5.20 ± 10.90 at 72 h. The cut-off point was 1.26 ng/mL with the best sensitivity and specificity of PCT as a predictor of mortality at 72 h of 75% and 68%, respectively (area under the curve 0.7, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.61 - 0.88), and positive and negative predictive values of 0.46 and 0.87, respectively. Conclusions: We propose the usefulness of PCT as a biochemical marker to predict mortality in patients with severe AP due to its accessibility in the hospital environment. We propose to carry out studies with more patients and follow-up times. In addition, it is necessary to consider other biomarkers associated with PCT to help us improve the positive predictive value of mortality in this disease.

Indexed as

MortalityProcalcitoninSevere acute pancreatitis

Identifiers

PMID40322192
PMCPMC12045753

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