Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40320297›Full record

ArticleThoracic cancer2025

Global, Regional, and National Burden of Breast Cancer, 1990-2021, and Projections to 2050: A Systematic Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

Tong Deng, Hao Zi, Xing-Pei Guo, Li-Sha Luo, Ya-Long Yang, Jin-Xuan Hou, Rui Zhou, Qian-Qian Yuan, Qing Liu, Qiao Huang and 1 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Thoracic cancer, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
10citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

10 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Trends in male breast cancer in Spain, 1999-2023: a nationwide analysis of incidence and mortality.Clinical & translational oncology : official publication of the Federation of Spanish Oncology Societies and of the National Cancer Institute of Mexico · 2026
    Article
  4. Trends in Female Breast Cancer Incidence among Japanese, Korean, and US Populations: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2026
    Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Review
  9. Article
  10. Coping Strategies and Health-Related Quality of Life in Breast Cancer Survivors.European journal of investigation in health, psychology and education · 2025
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Tong DengDepartment of Thyroid and Breast Surgery, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5871-1348
Hao ZiEvidence-Based Medicine Center, Xiangyang No. 1 People's Hospital, Hubei University of Medicine, Xiangyang, China.
Xing-Pei GuoDepartment of General Surgery, Zhengzhou Central Hospital Affiliated to Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, China.
Li-Sha LuoCenter for Evidence-Based and Translational Medicine, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1842-5782
Ya-Long YangDepartment of Breast Surgery, Hubei Cancer Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Hubei Provincial Clinical Research Center for Breast Cancer, Wuhan Clinical Research Center for Breast Cancer, Wuhan, China.
Jin-Xuan HouDepartment of Thyroid and Breast Surgery, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
Rui ZhouDepartment of Thyroid and Breast Surgery, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
Qian-Qian YuanDepartment of Thyroid and Breast Surgery, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
Qing LiuDepartment of Physical Examination, Zhengzhou Central Hospital Affiliated to Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, China.
Qiao HuangCenter for Evidence-Based and Translational Medicine, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
Gao-Song WuDepartment of Thyroid and Breast Surgery, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9296-7080

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThis study analyzes the global burden of breast cancer (BC) over the past 30 years, identifies key risk factors, and projects future incidence and mortality through 2050.

methodsData were sourced from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was used to assess trends, and country development was measured using the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI). Projections were conducted using Bayesian age-period-cohort and autoregressive integrated moving average models.

resultsIn 2021, approximately 2.12 million new breast cancer cases and 674 199 deaths were recorded globally. From 1990 to 2021, incidence and prevalence increased, while mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) declined overall. Regional and national variations were observed, alongside age and gender differences in the disease burden. A diet high in red meat and a high body mass index were the leading global risk factors for breast cancer deaths. The BC burden was positively correlated with SDI across 21 GBD regions. Decomposition analysis highlighted demographic factors as the main drivers of increased disease burden over the past three decades. Projections indicate that BC incidence will continue to rise through 2050.

conclusionsWhile global BC mortality has decreased over the past 30 years, incidence continues to rise. Low-SDI regions face increasing challenges, as incidence, mortality, and DALYs persistently climb. These findings underscore the need for targeted public health strategies and equitable resource distribution to mitigate the rising burden of breast cancer.

Indexed as

Breast NeoplasmsGlobal Burden of DiseaseAdultAgedDisability-Adjusted Life YearsFemaleGlobal HealthHumansIncidenceMaleMiddle AgedRisk Factorsbreast cancercancer epidemiologyglobal burden of diseasepredictionrisk factors

Identifiers

PMID40320297
PMCPMC12050159

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.