ArticleEpidemics2025
Modelling the interplay between responsive individual vaccination decisions and the spread of SARS-CoV-2.
Article in Epidemics, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed.
- Temporal Connectivity of Social Contact Networks in Urban and Rural India.Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.) · 2026Article
- Modeling the impact of adherence to U.S. isolation and masking guidance on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in office workplaces in 2021-2022.Epidemics · 2026Article
- Modeling the impact of adherence to U.S. isolation and masking guidance on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in office workplaces in 2021-2022.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Simulating targeted vaccination strategies with network-based and agent-based models: A scoping review.PLOS global public health · 2026Article
- Five Years of COVID-19 in Tocantins, Brazil: Epidemiology, Vaccination Impact, and SARS-CoV-2 Genomic Dynamics (2020-2025).Viruses · 2025Article
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Abstract
backgroundCOVID-19 vaccine hesitancy proved to be a major barrier to higher uptake, but it is unclear whether interventions targeting hesitancy could result in substantial prevention benefits. Epidemic models that represent vaccine decision-making psychology can provide insight into the potential impact of vaccine promotion interventions in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and future epidemics of vaccine-preventable diseases.
methodsWe coupled a network- and agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission with a social-psychological vaccination decision-making model in which vaccine side effects and breakthrough infections could "nudge" individuals towards vaccine resistance while spikes in COVID-19 hospitalizations could nudge them towards vaccine willingness. This model was parameterized and calibrated to represent the COVID-19 epidemic in Georgia, USA from January 2021 to August 2022. We modelled counterfactual scenarios in which increases to resistant-to-willing nudges were combined with decreases to willing-to-resistant nudges. We compared cumulative vaccine doses administered, SARS-CoV-2 incidence, and COVID-related deaths across scenarios.
resultsIncreasing the probability of hospitalization-prompted resistant-to-willing nudges increased vaccine uptake by as much as 5.4 % and decreased SARS-CoV-2 incidence by as much as 4.0 %. In contrast, decreasing the probability of breakthrough infection-related willing-to-resistant nudges had a negligible impact on further vaccination and disease outcomes.
conclusionsVaccine promotion interventions that address community-level factors influencing decision-making may have a greater ability to avert SARS-CoV-2 infections than those targeted to individual vaccination and infection history. Additionally, reactive vaccine promotion interventions may have only limited prevention benefits in the short term, suggesting that attention should be paid to formulating interventions that accurately anticipate the case curve.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.