ArticlemedRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences2025
Evaluating Migraine Trigger Surprisal: Associations with Migraine Activity.
Article in medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed.
- Enhancing Migraine Trigger Surprisal Predictions: A Bayesian Approach to Establishing Prospective Expectations.Entropy (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Background: Identifying migraine triggers is a common goal for most individuals with migraine but remains challenging due to the vast number of possible trigger candidates and their fluctuating nature. The Objective: The objective of this study was to evaluate the association between surprisal and future headache attacks. Methods: In this prospective daily diary study, N = 109 individuals with migraine were enrolled, with N = 104 completing twice-daily electronic entries for up to 28 days, yielding 5,176 total diaries. Diary items captured exposure to potential migraine triggers across behavioral, emotional, and environmental domains. For each entry, total surprisal scores were calculated using within-person empirical probability distributions to reflect how atypical each day's experiences were. Results: Participants experienced a headache on 1,518/5,145 (29.5%) of days with complete diary information. Higher surprisal significantly predicted increased migraine risk within 12 hours (OR = 1.86 [95%CI: 1.12-3.08], p = 0.016) and 24 hours (OR = 2.15 [95%CI: 1.44-3.20], p < 0.001), with stronger effects observed at the longer interval. Notably, the association between current surprisal and migraine onset was moderated by recent surprisal history and exhibited nonlinear properties at 12 hours. Random effects revealed substantial between-person variability in surprisal sensitivity, and individuals with higher baseline headache risk showed attenuated associations. Conclusions: Surprisal offers a novel, individualized measure of trigger unpredictability that is associated with short-term migraine risk. Incorporating surprisal into digital tools may improve personalized prediction and prevention strategies, moving beyond static trigger lists to a dynamic, context-aware model of migraine self-management.
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.