ArticleNature medicine2025
Modeling the impact of vaccine campaigns on the epidemic transmission dynamics of chikungunya virus outbreaks.
Article in Nature medicine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers.
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Who cites it
11 citing papers in PubMed.
- Global resurgence of Chikungunya virus: outbreak drivers and emerging solutions.Emerging microbes & infections · 2026Review
- Epidemic features and potential impact of vaccine campaigns on the 2025 chikungunya outbreak in southern China: a mathematical modelling study.New microbes and new infections · 2026Article
- Expert Recommendations to Strengthen Chikungunya Outbreak Surveillance and Reporting for Traveler Health Protection.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2026Article
- Numerical and transcritical bifurcation analysis of Chikungunya dynamics within a fractional-fractal framework.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Methods for estimating the burden of acute tropical infectious diseases: A scoping review.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
- Chikungunya: global epidemiology, clinical spectrum, and vector control-lessons for China from the 2025 Guangdong outbreak.Archives of toxicology · 2026Review
- Age-specific chikungunya outbreak response immunisation strategies in Brazil: a modelling study.EClinicalMedicine · 2025Article
- Microbial Volatiles from Human Skin and Floral Nectar: Insufficiently Understood Adult Feeding Cues To Improve Odor-Based Traps for Aedes Vector Control.Journal of chemical ecology · 2025Review
- Re-emergence of chikungunya virus in China by 2025: What we know and what to do?PLoS pathogens · 2025Review
- Vaccinations for Elite Athletes.Vaccines · 2025Article
- Global burden of chikungunya virus infections and the potential benefit of vaccination campaigns.Nature medicine · 2025Article
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Authors and funding
17 authors.
Funding
Abstract
A licensed chikungunya vaccine now exists; however, it remains unclear whether it could be deployed during outbreaks to reduce the health burden. We used an epidemic in Paraguay as a case study. We conducted a seroprevalence study and used models to reconstruct epidemic transmission dynamics, providing a framework to assess the theoretical impact of a vaccine had it been available. We estimated that 33.0% (95% confidence interval (CI) 30.1-36.0%) of the population became infected during the outbreak. Of these individuals, 6.3% (95% CI 5.8-6.9%) were detected by the surveillance system, with a mean infection fatality ratio of 0.013% (95% CI 0.012-0.014%). A disease-blocking vaccine with 75% efficacy deployed in 40% of individuals aged ≥12 years over a 3-month period would have prevented 34,200 (95% CI 30,900-38,000) cases, representing 23% of all cases, and 73 (95% CI 66-81) deaths. If the vaccine also leads to infection blocking, 88% of cases would have been averted. These findings suggest that the vaccine is an important new tool to control outbreaks.
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