Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40307834›Full record

ArticleBMC medicine2025

Using machine learning involving diagnoses and medications as a risk prediction tool for post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC) in primary care.

Seika Lee, Marta A Kisiel, Pia Lindberg, Åsa M Wheelock, Anna Olofsson, Julia Eriksson, Judith Bruchfeld, Michael Runold, Lars Wahlström, Andrei Malinovschi and 3 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC medicine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
6citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

6 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Taste dysfunction in Long COVID.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2025
    Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors.

Seika LeeOccupational and Environmental Medicine, Department of Medical Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.
Marta A KisielOccupational and Environmental Medicine, Department of Medical Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden. marta.kisiel@medsci.uu.se.
Pia LindbergDivision of Immunology and Respiratory Medicine, Department of Medicine Solna, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
Åsa M WheelockDivision of Immunology and Respiratory Medicine, Department of Medicine Solna, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
Anna OlofssonDivision of Biostatistics, Institute of Environmental Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
Julia ErikssonDivision of Biostatistics, Institute of Environmental Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
Judith BruchfeldDivision of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine Solna, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
Michael RunoldDivision of Immunology and Respiratory Medicine, Department of Medicine Solna, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
Lars WahlströmCentre for Psychiatry Research, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
Andrei MalinovschiClinical Physiology, Department of Medical Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.
Christer JansonRespiratory Medicine, Department of Medical Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.
Caroline WachtlerDepartment of Neurobiology, Care Sciences and Society, Division of Family Medicine and Primary Care, Karolinska Institutet, Huddinge, Sweden.
Axel C CarlssonDepartment of Neurobiology, Care Sciences and Society, Division of Family Medicine and Primary Care, Karolinska Institutet, Huddinge, Sweden.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe aim of our study was to determine whether the application of machine learning could predict PASC by using diagnoses from primary care and prescribed medication 1 year prior to PASC diagnosis.

methodsThis population-based case-control study included subjects aged 18-65 years from Sweden. Stochastic gradient boosting was used to develop a predictive model using diagnoses received in primary care, hospitalization due to acute COVID- 19, and prescribed medication. The variables with normalized relative influence (NRI) ≥ 1% showed were considered predictive. Odds ratios of marginal effects (OR

resultsThe study included 47,568 PASC cases and controls. More females (n = 5113) than males (n = 2815) were diagnosed with PASC. Key predictive factors identified in both sexes included prior hospitalization due to acute COVID- 19 (NRI 16.1%, OR

conclusionsMachine learning can predict PASC based on previous diagnoses and medications. Use of this AI method could support diagnostics of PASC in primary care and provide insight into PASC etiology.

Indexed as

COVID-19Machine LearningPrimary Health CareAdolescentAdultAgedCase-Control StudiesFemaleHospitalizationHumansMaleMiddle AgedPost-Acute COVID-19 SyndromeRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsSARS-CoV-2COVID- 19Machine learningPost-acute sequelae of COVID- 19 (PASC)Primary careStochastic gradient boosting

Identifiers

PMID40307834
PMCPMC12044741

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.